128
FXUS62 KMHX 161223
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
823 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon
and early evening storms through today. More numerous showers
and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and
stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last
into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 6:30 AM Tuesday...

-DANGEROUS HEAT-

Another hot and muggy day with dangerous heat is in store.
Inland Onslow, Jones, Craven, Pamlico, Beaufort, Mainland Hyde,
Washington, Tyrrell, and mainland Dare Counties have been
upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for heat indices up to
113F. All other zones remain under a Heat Advisory for heat
indices up to 109F.

-STRONG THUNDERSTORMS-

Today`s sources of forcing will be the seabreeze and the leeward
trough across the Carolinas. Similarly to the past few days, the
environment will be one of high MLCAPE (3000-5000 J/kg), high PWAT
(2"), and weak shear (10-15 kt). The general consensus of the CAMs
is that we`ll start with scattered coverage along the seabreeze. As
we progress into the later afternoon and evening, coverage will
increase from west to east and then diminish after sunset with the
loss of heating. The lack of shear will keep storms disorganized and
less-likely to become severe, but MLCAPE of this amount will provide
ample fuel to support very electric storms and high PWATs could
support quick downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Convective activity will decrease after
sunset but some showers and storms could linger into the
evening. Lows remain warm overnight with temps only dropping to
around 80. The fog threat will be minimal with the boundary
layer staying mixed with winds around 5-10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tue...We will trade the intense heat for cooler
weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms
in the long term.

Wednesday...This will be a transition day to a more active
pattern as ridge gets knocked down by approaching shortwave.
Some morning showers and embedded storms on the coast will
translate inland in the afternoon. Pops are in the 40-60% range,
and increased cloud cover will knock temps back down to the
lower 90s for highs. Heat adv criteria will be marginal, with
some places perhaps reaching 105 degrees briefly. Breezy
conditions will cont with the aforementioned shortwave keeping
gradient pinched, esp for coastal counties where 20-30 mph gusts
are expected. The strong onshore flow should preclude heat adv
for being met in the coastal counties.

Thursday through Friday...More certainty for the back
end of the week as 16/00Z model suite cont to converge on active
weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values
return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of
the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC
in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers
and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk
for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a
whopping 17 g/kg or higher. For these reasons, have added heavy
rain mention to fcst both Thur and Fri, centered during the
daytime diurnal cycle when the heaviest showers and storms are
expected. Instability goes down a bit (1000-2000 J/Kg), along
with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms
that develop will be some iso strong wet microburst winds and
heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the
increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously
high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Monday...Still looks to be cont active with
quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid
Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet.
NBM cont to indicate categorical pops through this whole period,
though as is the case with convection, showers and storms will
be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for the better part of the
weekend into early next week until mesoscale details can be
resolved, with highest pops focused on the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Wed/...
As of 6:30 AM Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected
through the period. Another round of afternoon convection is on
the table today with more widespread coverage than Monday.
Again, some storms may be strong with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning. The fog threat seems minimal tonight
with the boundary layer likely staying mixed with 5-10 kt SW
winds.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Diurnal showers and storms through Wed, become
more numerous Thu through the end of the week. Exceptions to
this could be with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect
southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period with
gusts nearing 20 kt Wed afternoon. Periods of rain and low
clouds will bring MVFR or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Winds remain out of the SW through the
period but become progressively gustier. From this morning to
this afternoon/evening, winds will ramp up from 10-15 kt to
15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Seas increase from 3-4 ft today to
4-5 ft tonight. All sounds and coastal waters are under a SCA
beginning this afternoon and lasting through at least Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...Gradient cont tight with sswrly 20-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt into Thu, and SCA`s cont for the coastal
waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. Seas will
build to 5-6 by later Wed and remain into Thu evening, when
gradient relaxes and winds drop below 25 kt. Rain and storm
chances will increase from Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044-079-
     090-091-195-196-199-203>205.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC