789
FNUS76 KMFR 130212
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Shelly incident branch 10 firing op...CAL FIRE
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
712 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 PDT on July 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...SW winds will ease and become downslope/downvalley
overnight into the early part of Saturday morning. This will result
in strong thermal belts at mid/upper slope levels with very poor RH
recovery. Winds become upslope in the mid-late morning, then SW again
Saturday afternoon at similar speeds to today. Upper level moisture
and instability increase and some cumulus buildups are expected
Saturday afternoon/evening, though best chance of lightning is SE of
the fire. A slight risk of dry lightning (15% chance) continues
Saturday night into Sunday.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. Areas of smoke.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........30-35 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest 1-3 mph in the evening, then calm or
                    downslope/downvalley 0-1 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5-7 mph this evening easing to 1-4 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......Lowering to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-15 mph, easing to 5 mph overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Areas of smoke. Some cumulus build up in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........8-13 percent.
Eye level winds.....Calm becoming upslope by mid-late morning, then
                    southwest 1-3 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable 1-3 mph becoming southwest 5-9
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL increasing to 12000 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5-10 mph early, then 10-15 mph in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Robert wettstein
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417918.0/MFR
.DELDT 07/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.wettstein@fire.ca.gov