130
FNUS76 KMFR 112249
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Warner Peak...LIFC
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
349 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 PDT on August 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...It will be just a couple degrees cooler on Monday,
with humidity levels similar to Sunday, but also with slightly
stronger, breezy afternoon westerly winds. Moisture aloft
increases early Monday evening, with just enough instability to
warrant including a slight chance (10%) of thunderstorms into late
Monday night. If there is a thunderstorm, it would be dry.

Cooler temperatures and higher humidity will be more apparent on
Tuesday, with a slight decrease in afternoon winds, though very
weak instability will again develop. Similarly, it is again
prudent to mention a slight chance/10% probability of a
thunderstorm for the afternoon and evening. On the bright side,
the outlook for receiving rainfall from any thunderstorms is
better.

Nearly as cool, but stable conditions are expected to follow
during the remainder of the week.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny with smoke (15-25 percent). Slight
                    chance (10%) of thunderstorms after 5 PM.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........10-13 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 2 to 5 mph increasing to 5 to 8 mph
                    with gusts to around 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 17 mph
                    with gusts to around 28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near any thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with smoke (35-45 percent).
                    Slight chance (10%) of thunderstorms from
                    5 PM through 3 AM.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........63-68 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 3 to 7 mph with gusts to around 12
                    mph until 10 pm, then decreasing to northwest 1
                    to 4 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph until 10 pm, then decreasing to northwest 3 to 8 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny with smoke (25-35 percent).
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms (10%) after
                    noon.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 3 to 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph becoming southwest winds
                    10 to 15 with gusts to around 22 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 16 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

$$
Forecaster...WEYGAND
Requested by...Zachary Hutchins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420040.2/MFR
.DELDT 08/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov, sturnerforestry@gmail.com