968
FNUS76 KMFR 130033
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for North...BLM
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
533 PM PDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING ON DRY VEGETATION...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY VEGETATION...

.DISCUSSION...Hot, breezy winds, critically low humidities, and unstable
afternoon conditions will persist through this weekend.  Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms enter the forecast on Saturday and
persist into Sunday. The best chance for storms will be Sunday. Storms that
develop are likely be dry with elevated bases and gusty outflow winds on
Saturday and a mix of dry and wet on Sunday. This means that these gusty
quickly shifting winds could travel tens if not hundreds of miles away from
storms. There is a very low chance (5%) that a thunderstorm could occur
overnight Saturday, which would also be dry. It is also important to note
that lightning will be extremely efficient in starting new fires, which is
why the red flag warning is in effect for the area despite an LAL of 2.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Hazy with some light smoke. A
25 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
from noon until 11 pm. Accumulations will be light,
even in thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....100 to 101 degrees.
Min humidity........10 to 12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East 2 to 4 mph until 9 pm then becoming southwest
8 to 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph in the afternoon
and evening, largely from 2 pm until 9 pm. Quickly
shifting winds to 40 mph could travel relatively far
from thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.


.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A 25 percent chance of thunderstorms
through 11 pm. Accumulations will be light, even in
thunderstorms. Afterwards, hazy skies expected overnight.
Min temperature.....64 to 66 degrees.
Max humidity........40 to 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 6 to 11 mph with gusts to 18 mph until 8 pm
becoming east 1 to 4 mph after midnight. Quickly shifting
winds to 40 mph near thunderstorms. It is possible that
distant thunderstorms could produce these 40 mph winds
at the fire through 11 pm.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A 25 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms from 11 AM through 11pm. Accumulations will
be light, even in thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....92 to 94 degrees.
Min humidity........15 to 19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East 0 to 2 mph becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph with
                    gusts to around 18 mph in the afternoon. Quickly shifting
winds to 40 mph near thunderstorms. It is possible that
distant thunderstorms could produce these 40 mph winds
at the fire through 11 pm.
CWR.................7 percent.
LAL.................2.

$$
Forecaster...SCHAAF
Requested by...Tanner Rosette
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417581.18/MFR
.DELDT 07/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Trosette@blm.gov