072
FXUS66 KMFR 142154
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
254 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...The satellite picture looks similar to this morning with the main
difference of less stratus at the coast. Cumulus is continuing to
build with some activity in northern Siskiyou County that is moving
northward. Central/eastern Siskiyou County, northwestern Modoc
County and central/southern Klamath and Lake counties have a 25-35%
probability for lightning in this area, and this is the most
widespread lightning risk coverage that is present. These
thunderstorm chances will continue through 8-10 PM tonight.

Overall, temperatures will be near 5-10 degrees above normal the
next few days, which will mean temperatures will still range from
50s and 60s in the mornings to 90s/low 100s in the afternoons
inland. The Rogue and Shasta Valleys and areas in western Siskiyou
County have an 85%+ probability to hit 100 through Tuesday. For
lows, last night`s temperatures were warmer than expected because of
the incoming cloud cover. Tonight`s temperatures were increased
slightly considering lingering cloud cover. The trend of warmer than
normal conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Please
still take precautions when having to be out in the heat this next
week.

The main smoke concerns lie in Siskiyou County with the Shelly Fire
while haze is present in other parts of Southern ORegon and Northern
California. This afternoon there will be southerly flow, and this
will bring more smoke of the Shelly Fire east into Modoc County and
southern Lake and Klamath counties. By morning, more of the smoke
will spread farther into southern Oregon, including Jackson County.

Monday afternoon`s chances for thunderstorms will be in similar
locations as today thanks to the upper level wave, but it will
extend into parts of Jackson and Josephine counties, including
Medford, Ashland, and Cave Junction.

Dry conditions are favored to return Wednesday. From Thursday
through the weekend, the probability for reaching 100 degrees in
Medford lowers to 25-45% while highs and lows are forecast to be 5-
10 degrees above normal. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z TAFS...This morning, despite the higher cloud
cover, VFR prevails over most of the CWA. However, IFR/LIFR marine
stratus/fog continues to impact the immediate coast and near shore
waters north of Cape Blanco and also south of Pistol River. These
lower conditions will continue to erode with clearing back to the
beaches expected for the afternoon. North winds pick up again this
afternoon, strongest from Cape Blanco to Pistol River with gusts up
to 35 kt, and gusts up to 25kt at North Bend. Expect stratus/fog to
return to the same coastal areas again early this evening, probably
around 00z at North Bend. Compared to today, the coastal IFR/LIFR
looks to be a little faster to erode later on Monday morning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon/evening from western Siskiyou County northward up to the
Siskiyou Mtns, southern Cascades (south of Crater Lake) and then
over to the east side again. Most activity should remain east of the
west side valleys, though can`t rule out a stray storm in southern
Rogue Valley near Ashland or up at Mt Ashland. Gusty and erratic
winds are expected near thunderstorms today.

Smoke from the Shelly fire in western Siskiyou County could bring
visibility reductions in the immediate vicinity of the fire with
MVFR visibility 15-25 miles away, especially to the NE (toward
Montague) as S-SW winds carry the main plume in that direction.
-CC/DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM Sunday, July 14, 2024...Steep to very steep
seas will continue at 5 to 9 ft at 7 to 8 seconds this evening.
North winds will be strongest this evening between Cape Blanco and
Nesika Beach from 3 to 20 nm from shore. North winds will trend
lower tonight into Monday. Even so, the main update is to extend the
low end Small Craft Advisory conditions expected late tonight
through Monday night with the mix of wind wave and fresh swell
producing steep northwest seas of 5 to 7 ft at 7 to 8 seconds.

Winds and seas will gradually subside Tuesday into Thursday. A
thermal trough is expected to return late in the week with steep
seas and advisory strength northerly winds possible.
-DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ621.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for ORZ620>622.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280>282.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for CAZ280-281.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for CAZ281.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ376.

&&

$$