768
FXUS66 KMFR 100402
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
902 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...The forecast remains on track for the night as hot
and dry weather continues under a stubborn upper ridge. Smoke from
the Shelly and Salt Creek fires are still affecting air quality
across most of northern California and southern Oregon, and will
continue to do so through Wednesday. A Heat Advisory east of the
Cascades and an Excessive Heat Warning for west of the Cascades
and south of the Umpqua Divide remain in place through Wednesday
as well. And for areas that aren`t under any heat product,
temperatures are still high enough that individuals vulnerable to
heat should use extra caution if spending time outside. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...10/00Z TAFS...Marine stratus is expected to return to
the Oregon coast this evening. LIFR conditions have been present at
North Bend the past couple nights and there is nothing that
indicates a pattern change. The TAFs go down to IFR levels for North
Bend this evening into tomorrow morning, but periods of LIFR
ceilings and visibilities returning is possible.

Inland areas will remain VFR levels, with afternoon winds calming
this evening and returning Wednesday afternoon. Smoke from fires in
western Siskiyou County and central Jackson County may locally lower
visibilities in those counties and into Douglas or Klamath counties
as well. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 PM Tuesday, July 9th, 2024...A thermal
trough will strengthen tonight through Thursday resulting in
increasing north winds and elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop this evening through Thursday
morning for areas south of Cape Blanco, with moderate north winds
and steep wind driven seas. Winds and seas increase Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday with gales and very steep seas expected
from Gold Beach south beginning Wednesday evening then for areas
south of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon and night. North of Cape
Blanco, winds will be weaker today but increase Wednesday evening
and Thursday with gusty, north winds and steep seas likely.
Moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas may
linger on Friday. Then winds and seas are expected to gradually
lower Saturday and Sunday. -CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 PM Monday July 8, 2024...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible all week...

Our trend of hot, breezy, low humidities, and occasionally unstable
afternoon conditions will persist through this weekend. Our
afternoons are forecast to be above normal with deep mixing.
Fortunately the wind speeds are not too crazy this week, but they
certainly will be on the breezy side around 10-15 mph. Single digit
RH values are also forecast during the afternoon hours across the
eastside this week. These factors during this prolonged drying
stretch will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions
nearly every day this week. There are going to be a couple hours
here and there with criteria being met, but this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon may fall just short of actually reaching
criteria. While no official warnings are out now, it will be very
borderline today and tomorrow afternoon. Conditions worsen as the
week progresses, and we will likely see Red Flag Warnings coming to
fruition as early as Thursday. That said, if conditions change now
through Thursday, we could see these conditions sooner as we are
already close each afternoon of reaching critical thresholds.

There is some relief from this heat by mid-week with a slight cool
down, but the reality is that temperatures are still going to be on
the warm side. Much of the area hasn`t received much rainfall, so
fuels are only going to worsen as this prolonged drying stretch
continues with above normal temperatures. The heat is obviously of
importance for those outside fighting the fires.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 555 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the
forecast area. The exception is for marine stratus along the coast
from Cape Blanco south and some cumulus build ups along the
Cascades and higher terrain east of the Cascades. Smoke from the
Shelly and Salt Creek fires are mainly concentrated in the
vicinity of these fires and will be the case for the next hour,
then once the typical northwest flow kicks in, the smoke from the
Salt Creek fire will get transported southeast towards Klamath
Falls, but not should not be in Klamath Falls proper. Also the
smoke from the Shelly Fire will also get pushed southeast late
this afternoon and evening.

In the meantime, dry and hot weather will continue through the end
of the week. Afternoon temperatures will be at their highest today
for most inland locations, with a slow downward trend tomorrow
through Friday, although they will still be near or at triple
digits for most interior west side valley locations and low to mid
90s east of the Cascades. The one notable improvement will be
cooler overnight lows the latter part of the week. However.
overnight lows tonight and Wednesday night will be similar to this
morning (maybe a degree or two lower).

The weather situation this weekend will need to be watched
carefully. This will especially be the case along and east of the
Cascades and northern California. The upper ridge that`s been over
the area for the past week is expected to shift to the four
corners this weekend. At the same time an upper low will develop
off the California coast Saturday. This will result in a
southerly flow pushing into our area and could tap into a bit of
monsoonal moisture. The amount of moisture is limited, but the
pattern that`s setting up is a bit concerning in that it typically
results in an elevated risk for isolated thunderstorms east of
the Cascades and northern California. For Saturday, the biggest
risk for isolated storms should be mainly confined to Lake and
southeast Modoc County in the afternoon and evening hours. This is
by no means a slam dunk, but at the same time it cannot be
discounted.

Sunday, the situation should be more favorable for isolated
storms. Some evidence supports most of the action could end up
northeast of our forecast area. However, there` still sufficient
evidence to suggest the threat at risk for isolated storms Sunday
afternoon and Sunday evening will be in Lake, eastern Klamath and
eastern Modoc County.

Once we get by this weekend, a dry and stable southwest flow will
return with any threat for storms ending, but afternoon
temperatures will still remain above normal for the interior.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ029>031.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ080>082.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-
     376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ376.

&&

$$