Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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349 FXUS66 KMFR 101608 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 908 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .DISCUSSION... There is plenty of smoke/haze on satellite imagery this morning with the Shelly and Salt Creek fires burning with a little intensity. Heat signatures from the GOES satellite shows the Shelly fire in Siskiyou County putting out more heat and smoke at this time, although that could change into the day with planned burn operations. Otherwise, hot temperatures are still lingering around, although we`re trending a few degrees cooler today and into the rest of the week. Even with the relatively cooler temperatures this afternoon, major HeatRisk will linger. For more information beyond today, read the previous discussion below. -Smith && .AVIATION...10/12Z TAFS...Coastal areas, including North Bend, Gold Beach and Brookings are socked in with IFR and LIFR conditions this morning. The marine layer is a bit deeper than yesterday, so expect a little more staying power to the stratus/fog in North Bend. We have it clearing to VFR in the 19-20Z time frame as gusty north winds develop (~25-30 kt). What clearing there is this afternoon will be short-lived as the stratus (IFR/LIFR) is expected to return this evening, probably in the 03-06z range, and then last the remainder of the night. Inland, VFR will prevail, with gusty breezes (20-25 kt) returning at Medford, Roseburg and Klamath Falls terminals this afternoon/evening. Smoke from fires in western Siskiyou County and central Jackson County may locally lower visibilities in those areas and into Douglas or Klamath counties as well. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Wednesday, July 10, 2024...A thermal trough will strengthen today through Thursday resulting in stronger north winds and increasingly hazardous seas. While areas north of Cape Blanco will remain OK today, Small Craft Advisory conditions with moderate north winds and steep wind-driven seas are expected through this afternoon for areas south of Cape Blanco. North winds and seas will increase this evening through Thursday. Gales and very steep, hazardous seas develop this evening from Gold Beach south, then expand north to around Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon and night. North of Cape Blanco, winds will gradually increase as well this evening through Thursday with steep seas becoming likely. Moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas continue Friday. Then, winds and seas are expected to gradually lower Saturday and Sunday. - Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 200 AM Tuesday July 9, 2024... ....Near critical fire weather conditions possible all week... Our trend of hot, breezy, low humidities, and occasionally unstable afternoon conditions will persist through this weekend. Our afternoons are forecast to be above normal with deep mixing. Fortunately the wind speeds are not too crazy this week, but they certainly will be on the breezy side around 10-15 mph. Very low humidities, some reaching single digits east of the Cascades are also forecast during the afternoon hours this week. These factors during this prolonged drying stretch will result in near critical fire weather conditions nearly every day this week. At this point, however, it does not appear as if there is a large overlap between the gusty winds and critically low humidity. Additionally, afternoons and evenings may continue to become unstable with Haines 5s and 6s painted across much of the area, including some area wildfires in Jackson and Siskiyou Counties over the next several days. However, with conditions generally improving; will allow a headline to continue for now and implore the day shift to coordinate with area agencies and IMETs. The attention then shifts to the weekend where a threat of thunderstorms exists at around a 15% chance, particularly east of the Cascades. The thunderstorms will be isolated in nature, although some guidance is suggesting the potential for a more scattered thunderstorm outbreak. Most guidance, is showing that for areas northeast of our area. However, it would stand to reason that lightning efficiency would be pretty good with the prolonged hot, dry, and windy spell we just had. We will continue to monitor the situation and hope that the thunderstorm threat pushes away from our area. -Schaaf && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows marine stratus across most of the southern Oregon coast and inland into the Coquille Basin. Elsewhere remains cloud free. Our "groundhog" day of summer continues with a ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate the the western United States, including southern Oregon and northern California. However, the ridge is beginning to break down somewhat, and afternoon high temperatures today should be a few degrees less, particularly across the West Side Valleys. That being said, temperatures inland from the coast will be in the 90s to 100s with higher temperatures in the West Side Valleys. At the coast, temperatures will still be warm relative to their climatological normals, but temperatures will be in the 70s. Will continue to our plethora of heat products through this evening. The main difference, however, is that with the ridge breakdown, temperatures will be allowed to cool off at night providing some relief from the hot temperatures. The caveat to this statement is that this will be where smoke is not present in large concentrations. Not that the smoke will keep things warmer, but that the smoke will prevent people from being able to open their windows. Now, smoke will largely be downwind (toward the southeast) of area wildfires, with Siskiyou and Modoc Counties forecast to receive the highest concentrations. However, portions of Jackson County--especially downwind of the Salt Creek Fire, have degraded air quality as well. As such, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued an an air quality advisory for Jackson County. Info about the air quality can be found on the Oregon smoke blog: https://oregonsmoke.org Despite the ridge slowly breaking down, temperatures will be similar over the next few days with highs in the low 100s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. This pattern will repeat through the weekend. Then, over the weekend, a low pressure system will develop off the coast and California and shift northward while remaining offshore. This may indeed break our streak of 100 degree temperatures for portions of our area. Additionally, this will also bring in some monsoonal moisture and additional energy that could mean thunderstorms. The general thought at this point is that isolated to potentially scattered storms will be limited to areas east of the Cascades, but there are ensemble members that do show a farther west extent while others show a more eastward extent missing us completely. The threat begins Saturday afternoon with Sunday looking to be the more favorable afternoon and evening for thunderstorms. With everything being said and done, Beyond that, we return to a more stable southwest flow pattern with above normal temperatures for interior locations. -Schaaf && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024- 026. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ029>031. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>082. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ083>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ376. && $$