Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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156 FXUS66 KMFR 131237 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 535 AM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion. .DISCUSSION... Chalk up another warmer than normal day for southern Oregon and northern California for this July. Today will be a bit warmer with highs pushing a bit above 100 and testing records in the Shasta Valley. Right now, we`re forecasting 102 degrees in Mt. Shasta City, which would break the old record of 99 set in 2021. The NWS HeatRisk algorithm does pick up on some major heat risk in a few of the southern valleys today, so heat illness is a risk for those that don`t adequately hydrate or find adequate cooling facilities. As for the heat hazards, our heat advisory and excessive heat warnings go on through this evening, and that will likely be the end of this heat wave. Although, it`s worth mentioning that the above normal temperatures continue into the end of next week. Shifting to air quality and smoke, fires will likely burn actively with the plumes heading towards the north east. However, the low level flow(0-1km) remains out of the west to northwest. The result is the Scott and Shasta Valleys still seeing plenty of smoke from the Shelly Fire as that fire keeps burning with some intensity. The Klamath Basin should also see some smoke as it mixes down from higher elevations in the afternoon and evening. As for thunderstorms, some moisture will push in from California today. There is a very low risk of cloud to ground lightning around Modoc and southern Lake and Klamath Counties. The High resolution ensemble forecast system shows a few 40 dbz echos sliding through the area this afternoon. With such high bases, these storms will likely be dry.The upper level wave bringing in this moisture will push a little farther north Saturday night into Sunday. It`s really hard to see storms persisting overnight, although it`s not out of the question. By Sunday, the amount of moisture increasing in the region is more notable as the upper level wave moves up the California coast. The confidence in storms is higher as the probability of thunder from the NBM also increases. In addition, the coverage of storms should be higher compared to Saturday. Jumping into next week, the four corners high will remain in place with some warmer than normal temperatures continuing. It`s not excessively hot, just warmer than normal. Thunderstorms will probably remain in the forecast on Monday or Tuesday as the upper level wave moves through our region around that time. -Smith && .FIRE WEATHER...Issued 330 AM Saturday July 13, 2024... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TODAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOW RH AND LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TODAY FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...284...285...624 AND 625... ...Complex fire weather environment evolves this weekend... Hot, breezy, low humidities, and unstable afternoon conditions will persist this afternoon across the region, but especially east of the Cascades. Mixed with a little bit of wind, the fire weather risk will hit critical conditions east of the Cascades today. This is shown in the Hot Dry Windy Index with values exceeding climatological norms for this time of year around Chemult and Fort Rock. The good news here is that winds are not exceptionally strong with sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph in northern Klamath and Lake counties. However, humidities are anticipated to drop into the single digits, which is lower than what we usually see in this area during the summer. On the other hand, there is some moisture arriving from the south today and this can be seen by the cloud cover over sections of California and Nevada. There is a low threat for some cloud to ground lightning. We wouldn`t consider this abundant lightning on the other hand. However, if cloud to ground lightning does occur, it has a high probability of being dry given the very dry boundary layer and lack of moisture in the mid layers. In addition, models are showing storm outflows in the wind fields, which suggests the storms are drier than what we usually see in our region. The argument against storm development this afternoon is the forcing to get storms going in addition to the high level of free convection of ~13000 feet. As we head into Sunday, the potential for thunderstorms shifts north and westward. It`s not out of the question we see some isolated, elevated convection continue Saturday night into Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon and evening looks like the day for the most coverage of storms as the moisture field shifts north and westward. Have left the Fire Weather Watch in place for FWZ 624, 625, 284, 285 and FWZ 280, which also includes the Shelly Fire. For now, confidence is higher for the zones covered by a watch, but it`s not out of the question for an isolated storm along the Cascades or Siskiyous. Once this timeframe is covered by the high resolution models, will make further decisions on upgrading or adding more zones. Storms should trend wetter on Sunday, but still be a mix of dry and wet storms, with lightning strikes outside of precipitation cores a real possibility and cause for concern. /BR-y/Smith && .AVIATION...13/12Z TAFS...Marine stratus will impact the coast north of Cape Blanco (including at North Bend) and near Brookings this morning with IFR and LIFR conditions. Expect the stratus to push back to the beaches or just offshore again later this morning (16-18Z) with VFR returning to North Bend. Gusty north winds develop again in the afternoon, with gusts of 25-30kt. IFR and LIFR will return again to the coast by early this evening. Inland, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, except for MVFR visibility between 4-5 miles in the vicinity of the Shelly Fire. Visibility could briefly lower to 5 miles near the Salt Creek Fire, but the prevailing visibility should remain 6 miles or greater. Mid and upper level moisture will move into southern and eastern sections of the area Saturday which could initiate convection during the afternoon and evening in portions of Siskiyou, Modoc, southeastern Klamath and southern Lake counties. Isolated t-storms could produce lightning and gusty outflows. -Spilde/CC && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM Saturday, July 13, 2024...Moderate to strong winds will continue, with the strongest winds beyond 5 nm from near Port Orford southward. Very steep wind driven seas up to 13 feet will persist in roughly the same area. Winds will ease some Saturday night into Sunday, but very steep seas and areas of gales will remain over the southern. For the waters from Cape Blanco north, gusty winds and steep seas are expected through Sunday. Winds and seas will lower some Sunday night in Monday but expect continued gusty north winds and steep seas across much of the waters. Then winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish Tuesday through Wednesday with calmer conditions. -CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ORZ624-625. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024-026- 029>031. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>082. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ280-284-285. Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ083>085. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. && $$