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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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761 FXUS62 KMFL 161338 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 938 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 919 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A slightly cooler morning today as the area is under the influence of weak northeasterly flow behind a weak frontal boundary. A few showers and storms have been ongoing across local waters and have impacted some portions of coastal eastern metro areas. This activity is expected to continue and increase in coverage and intensity heading into peak daytime heating. PWATs came in around 2.3" on the morning MFL sounding so the atmosphere is juicy and primed for heavy rainfall potential. Areas that were saturated with yesterday`s showers and storms may have additional issues with localized and urban flooding today - especially parts of Southern Broward and metro Miami Dade County. Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any convective activity today. As a result, the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center. Very low confidence in any one specific solution, but HREF LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with localized 7"+ of rain in some portions of the eastern metro through the evening. While the probability of these higher (7"+) totals occurring are low, all of the signals for heavier rainfall are there today. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A diffuse boundary has settled over southern Florida which will allow for a focus for tropical moisture today. Precipitable water values well in excess of 2 inches, a pattern conducive to coastal convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across portions of the east coast metro areas could lead to a quick trigger for urban flooding today. Activity could get going at some point this morning with a peak in the afternoon to early evening hours. The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with provide for lower shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The brief relief from the heat for the weekend will start to end as the boundary retreats north from the straits and moisture increases over South Florida early in the week. Another frontal boundary moving across the eastern United States will eventually reach at least Central Florida by mid-week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes in its wake. This boundary will linger around the peninsula of Florida through much of the week serving as a focus for moisture and returning a more unsettled pattern over the state. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 L/V winds early this morning with isolated SHRA across the east coast of South Florida, which could bring periods of MVFR conditions and gusty winds to terminals if directly overhead. SHRA/TSRA activity becomes scattered to widespread this afternoon with light northeasterly surface prevailing across the region. Not quite enough confidence yet for TEMPOs at any specific sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula. Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula. Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .BEACHES... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, particularly in the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 89 79 / 80 40 40 20 West Kendall 90 76 89 75 / 80 40 50 20 Opa-Locka 90 79 90 78 / 80 30 40 20 Homestead 89 78 88 78 / 80 50 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 70 30 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 89 79 / 70 20 30 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 30 10 West Palm Beach 89 79 90 77 / 50 10 20 10 Boca Raton 89 79 90 78 / 70 20 30 10 Naples 91 76 92 76 / 80 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Rizzuto