


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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296 FXUS62 KMFL 051616 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1216 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Mesoanalysis and GOES-19 Visible Imagery indicate the continued presence of a surface trough just to the north of Lake Okeechobee associated with a distant Tropical Storm Chantal spinning just offshore of the southeastern United States early this afternoon. Deep atmospheric moisture along this boundary combined with convergent surface wind flow (southwesterly to the south, northwesterly to the north) will continue to support the foci of shower and thunderstorm development along and to the south of the boundary. With lackluster mid-level lapse rates and warm 500mb temperatures aloft, convection will remain rather benign today with the caveat that heavy rainfall, gusty winds (40 to 50mph gusts possible), and lightning will be possible with any thunderstorms as activity quickly propagates from southwest to northeast across the area. Recent ACARS data from area airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) also corroborates this well depicting high precipitable water values but swift 925-850mb flow which will allow for transient showers and storms to propagate swiftly along. While the overnight HREF LPMM does not depict much in the form of heavier rainfall, isolated areas could receive 1-2" inches of rainfall today if repeated rounds of heavy rainfall focus over the same area. Activity should begin to wane during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating with residual cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s this evening. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to near 90 today as rain cooled air and a plethora of cloud debris act to keep temperatures at bay. As Tropical Storm Chantal continues to lift northward overnight, the aforementioned surface trough will also lift northward across the Florida Peninsula. This in turn will allow for the deeper plume of atmospheric moisture to lift north of our region and usher in a slightly dry airmass into South Florida as mid-level flow veers more southerly in response to a building mid-level ridge. However southwesterly surface flow on the southside of the departing boundary will still allow for enough moisture to get quick moving showers and storms during the daytime hours of Sunday. Once again, brief bursts of heavy rainfall is possible, lightning, and the potential of gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. The chances of strong thunderstorm development will remain low, however, there will be enough instability in place to support an isolated strong thunderstorm or two mainly over the Lake Okeechobee region. With less cloud cover in place compared to the last several days, high temperatures on Sunday will generally be able to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. With the winds diminishing combined with more sunshine, there may be some heat concerns as heat index values could approach 105 over the interior and east coast metro areas on Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 During the early portion of the week, mid level ridging will build over the region and surface high pressure centered in the Atlantic will continue to build westwards towards the area. This will result in a return to more of a typical summertime pattern during this time frame as winds will generally remain light and sea breeze driven. With a lack of any mid to upper level support, convective initiation will be driven by the sea breeze boundaries each day. Shower and thunderstorm development will start out along the east coast in the morning before shifting towards the interior and west coast each afternoon and evening. While conditions will generally not be favorable for strong thunderstorm development early next week, an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out over the interior during peak diurnal heating in the afternoon where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures early next week will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. During the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty in the forecast starts to rise a bit as the latest guidance suite is showing signs of another Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) approaching and moving through the area. While global and ensemble guidance remains in generally good agreement with showing this feature affecting the region during this general time frame, there remains some disagreement in regards to the evolution of this feature. The GFS solutions are a bit faster and more pronounced than the ECMWF solutions. What this means as far as the sensible weather is concerned across the region during this time frame is that this may help to enhance convection and increase the chances of strong to marginally severe thunderstorm development anywhere from later on Tuesday through later on Thursday. The timing and evolution of this feature will be key in determining the exact details in regards to where the strongest storms set up, however, with high pressure remaining in place at the surface keeping a light southeasterly wind flow in place, this would favor the interior and west coast each afternoon. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will remain near climatological normals as they will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 SW winds around 5 kts early this morning increasing to 10-15 kts after 15Z. SCT showers and thunderstorms expected today which may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings expected from late morning into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 A moderate southwesterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today before becoming more southerly across the Atlantic waters on Sunday. These winds will gradually diminish and become gentle across the local waters early next week. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 3 feet through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 With a persistent southwesterly wind flow in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will remain along the Collier County beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 91 78 91 / 30 40 10 30 West Kendall 75 91 75 92 / 30 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 93 / 30 40 10 30 Homestead 77 91 77 90 / 30 30 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 90 78 90 / 30 40 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 91 78 91 / 30 40 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 95 / 30 40 10 30 West Palm Beach 77 91 76 91 / 30 60 10 30 Boca Raton 77 93 77 93 / 30 50 10 30 Naples 78 90 77 91 / 50 40 10 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF