296
FXUS62 KMFL 051616
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1216 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mesoanalysis and GOES-19 Visible Imagery indicate the continued
presence of a surface trough just to the north of Lake Okeechobee
associated with a distant Tropical Storm Chantal spinning just
offshore of the southeastern United States early this afternoon.
Deep atmospheric moisture along this boundary combined with
convergent surface wind flow (southwesterly to the south,
northwesterly to the north) will continue to support the foci of
shower and thunderstorm development along and to the south of the
boundary. With lackluster mid-level lapse rates and warm 500mb
temperatures aloft, convection will remain rather benign today with
the caveat that heavy rainfall, gusty winds (40 to 50mph gusts
possible), and lightning will be possible with any thunderstorms as
activity quickly propagates from southwest to northeast across the
area. Recent ACARS data from area airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI)
also corroborates this well depicting high precipitable water values
but swift 925-850mb flow which will allow for transient showers and
storms to propagate swiftly along. While the overnight HREF LPMM
does not depict much in the form of heavier rainfall, isolated areas
could receive 1-2" inches of rainfall today if repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall focus over the same area. Activity should begin to
wane during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating with
residual cloud cover keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s this evening. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s
to near 90 today as rain cooled air and a plethora of cloud debris
act to keep temperatures at bay.

As Tropical Storm Chantal continues to lift northward overnight, the
aforementioned surface trough will also lift northward across the
Florida Peninsula. This in turn will allow for the deeper plume
of atmospheric moisture to lift north of our region and usher in a
slightly dry airmass into South Florida as mid-level flow veers
more southerly in response to a building mid-level ridge. However
southwesterly surface flow on the southside of the departing
boundary will still allow for enough moisture to get quick moving
showers and storms during the daytime hours of Sunday. Once again,
brief bursts of heavy rainfall is possible, lightning, and the
potential of gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. The chances of
strong thunderstorm development will remain low, however, there
will be enough instability in place to support an isolated strong
thunderstorm or two mainly over the Lake Okeechobee region. With
less cloud cover in place compared to the last several days, high
temperatures on Sunday will generally be able to rise into the
lower 90s across most of South Florida. With the winds diminishing
combined with more sunshine, there may be some heat concerns as
heat index values could approach 105 over the interior and east
coast metro areas on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

During the early portion of the week, mid level ridging will build
over the region and surface high pressure centered in the Atlantic
will continue to build westwards towards the area. This will result
in a return to more of a typical summertime pattern during this time
frame as winds will generally remain light and sea breeze driven.
With a lack of any mid to upper level support, convective initiation
will be driven by the sea breeze boundaries each day. Shower and
thunderstorm development will start out along the east coast in the
morning before shifting towards the interior and west coast each
afternoon and evening. While conditions will generally not be
favorable for strong thunderstorm development early next week, an
isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out over the interior
during peak diurnal heating in the afternoon where sea breeze and
other mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures early next
week will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the
lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

During the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty in the
forecast starts to rise a bit as the latest guidance suite is
showing signs of another Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT)
approaching and moving through the area. While global and ensemble
guidance remains in generally good agreement with showing this
feature affecting the region during this general time frame, there
remains some disagreement in regards to the evolution of this
feature. The GFS solutions are a bit faster and more pronounced than
the ECMWF solutions. What this means as far as the sensible weather
is concerned across the region during this time frame is that this
may help to enhance convection and increase the chances of strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm development anywhere from later on
Tuesday through later on Thursday. The timing and evolution of this
feature will be key in determining the exact details in regards to
where the strongest storms set up, however, with high pressure
remaining in place at the surface keeping a light southeasterly wind
flow in place, this would favor the interior and west coast each
afternoon. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will remain
near climatological normals as they will rise into the upper 80s and
lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

SW winds around 5 kts early this morning increasing to 10-15 kts
after 15Z. SCT showers and thunderstorms expected today which may
result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. SCT to BKN
MVFR ceilings expected from late morning into early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A moderate southwesterly wind flow will continue across the local
waters today before becoming more southerly across the Atlantic
waters on Sunday. These winds will gradually diminish and become
gentle across the local waters early next week. Seas across the
Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 3 feet through the weekend
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

With a persistent southwesterly wind flow in place, a moderate risk
of rip currents will remain along the Collier County beaches
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  30
West Kendall     75  91  75  92 /  30  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  93 /  30  40  10  30
Homestead        77  91  77  90 /  30  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  78  90 /  30  40  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  95 /  30  40  10  30
West Palm Beach  77  91  76  91 /  30  60  10  30
Boca Raton       77  93  77  93 /  30  50  10  30
Naples           78  90  77  91 /  50  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF