761
FXUS62 KMFL 161338
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
938 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A slightly cooler morning today as the area is under the influence
of weak northeasterly flow behind a weak frontal boundary. A few
showers and storms have been ongoing across local waters and have
impacted some portions of coastal eastern metro areas. This
activity is expected to continue and increase in coverage and
intensity heading into peak daytime heating. PWATs came in around
2.3" on the morning MFL sounding so the atmosphere is juicy and
primed for heavy rainfall potential. Areas that were saturated
with yesterday`s showers and storms may have additional issues
with localized and urban flooding today - especially parts of
Southern Broward and metro Miami Dade County.
Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated
PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any
convective activity today. As a result, the area remains under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction
Center. Very low confidence in any one specific solution, but HREF
LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with localized 7"+ of rain in
some portions of the eastern metro through the evening. While the
probability of these higher (7"+) totals occurring are low, all of
the signals for heavier rainfall are there today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A diffuse boundary has settled over southern Florida which will
allow for a focus for tropical moisture today. Precipitable water
values well in excess of 2 inches, a pattern conducive to coastal
convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across portions of the
east coast metro areas could lead to a quick trigger for urban
flooding today. Activity could get going at some point this
morning with a peak in the afternoon to early evening hours.

The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for
slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help
provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with provide
for lower shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The brief relief from the heat for the weekend will start to end
as the boundary retreats north from the straits and moisture
increases over South Florida early in the week. Another frontal
boundary moving across the eastern United States will eventually
reach at least Central Florida by mid-week as high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes in its wake. This boundary will linger
around the peninsula of Florida through much of the week serving
as a focus for moisture and returning a more unsettled pattern
over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

L/V winds early this morning with isolated SHRA across the east
coast of South Florida, which could bring periods of MVFR
conditions and gusty winds to terminals if directly overhead.
SHRA/TSRA activity becomes scattered to widespread this afternoon
with light northeasterly surface prevailing across the region.
Not quite enough confidence yet for TEMPOs at any specific sites. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula.
Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on
Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula.
Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on
Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick
off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents
to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida,
particularly in the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  89  79 /  80  40  40  20
West Kendall     90  76  89  75 /  80  40  50  20
Opa-Locka        90  79  90  78 /  80  30  40  20
Homestead        89  78  88  78 /  80  50  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  88  78 /  70  30  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  79 /  70  20  30  10
Pembroke Pines   91  79  92  79 /  80  30  30  10
West Palm Beach  89  79  90  77 /  50  10  20  10
Boca Raton       89  79  90  78 /  70  20  30  10
Naples           91  76  92  76 /  80  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Rizzuto