350
FXUS62 KMFL 161643
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1243 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A diffuse boundary remains just south of the area which will
allow for a focus for tropical moisture this afternoon.
Precipitable water values nearing 2.3 inches, a pattern conducive
to coastal convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across
portions of the east coast metro areas could lead to a quick
trigger for urban flooding today. Activity has been sporadic over
the waters and immediate coastal areas this morning and coverage
is expected to increase over the next couple of hours as we
approach peak daytime heating.
Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated
PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any
convective activity today. As a result, the area remains under a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction
Center. Very low confidence in any one specific solution, but HREF
LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with localized 7"+ of rain in
some portions of the eastern metro through the evening. While the
probability of these higher (7"+) totals occurring are low, all of
the signals for heavier rainfall are there today so this scenario
cannot completely be ignored.

The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for
slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help
provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with provide
for lower shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The brief relief from the heat for the weekend will start to end
as the boundary retreats north from the straits and moisture
increases over South Florida early in the week. Another frontal
boundary moving across the eastern United States will eventually
reach at least Central Florida by mid-week as high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes in its wake. This boundary will linger
around the peninsula of Florida through much of the week serving
as a focus for moisture and returning a more unsettled pattern
over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon leading to
the possibility of short-fuse amendments for IFR or even LIFR
conditions across sites directly impacted. VCSH continues
overnight for southern sites as a weak boundary remains just to
the south of the area. Chance for thunderstorms continues tomorrow
and tomorrow afternoon but POPs will be maximized across southern
portions of the area, primarily Miami Dade and southern Broward
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula.
Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters
today behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick
off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents
to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida,
particularly in the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  79  91 /  30  40  20  30
West Kendall     77  90  75  92 /  40  60  20  40
Opa-Locka        79  90  78  92 /  30  40  20  30
Homestead        78  88  78  89 /  50  60  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  78  89 /  20  30  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  80  89  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
Pembroke Pines   80  92  79  94 /  20  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  79  90  77  92 /  10  10  10  10
Boca Raton       80  90  78  91 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           77  92  76  92 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Rizzuto