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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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350 FXUS62 KMFL 161643 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A diffuse boundary remains just south of the area which will allow for a focus for tropical moisture this afternoon. Precipitable water values nearing 2.3 inches, a pattern conducive to coastal convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across portions of the east coast metro areas could lead to a quick trigger for urban flooding today. Activity has been sporadic over the waters and immediate coastal areas this morning and coverage is expected to increase over the next couple of hours as we approach peak daytime heating. Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any convective activity today. As a result, the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center. Very low confidence in any one specific solution, but HREF LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with localized 7"+ of rain in some portions of the eastern metro through the evening. While the probability of these higher (7"+) totals occurring are low, all of the signals for heavier rainfall are there today so this scenario cannot completely be ignored. The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with provide for lower shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The brief relief from the heat for the weekend will start to end as the boundary retreats north from the straits and moisture increases over South Florida early in the week. Another frontal boundary moving across the eastern United States will eventually reach at least Central Florida by mid-week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes in its wake. This boundary will linger around the peninsula of Florida through much of the week serving as a focus for moisture and returning a more unsettled pattern over the state. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon leading to the possibility of short-fuse amendments for IFR or even LIFR conditions across sites directly impacted. VCSH continues overnight for southern sites as a weak boundary remains just to the south of the area. Chance for thunderstorms continues tomorrow and tomorrow afternoon but POPs will be maximized across southern portions of the area, primarily Miami Dade and southern Broward sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula. Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters today behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, particularly in the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 79 91 / 30 40 20 30 West Kendall 77 90 75 92 / 40 60 20 40 Opa-Locka 79 90 78 92 / 30 40 20 30 Homestead 78 88 78 89 / 50 60 30 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 88 78 89 / 20 30 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 80 89 79 91 / 20 20 10 20 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 94 / 20 30 10 20 West Palm Beach 79 90 77 92 / 10 10 10 10 Boca Raton 80 90 78 91 / 10 20 10 20 Naples 77 92 76 92 / 30 40 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Rizzuto