783
FXUS62 KMFL 141302
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
902 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The diurnal warming has commenced this morning with most sites
running a couple of degrees behind the earlier forecast. Have
accelerated the warm up and raised temperatures a nudge before
convection starts up in earnest. Accordingly, the maximum heat
index values have also increased, necessitating an expansion of
the Heat Advisory into Palm Beach and mainland Monroe Counties.
Will continue to monitor conditions in case expansion into Hendry
and Glades Counties becomes warranted. Otherwise, the forecast is
on track with a convective focus expected this afternoon and
evening over interior and western portions of the area. Have a
wonderful Sunday!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The strong Bermuda high will begin to weaken on Sunday and into
Monday as weaker tropical disturbances advect easterly underneath
the ridge, but the high pressure will still remain situated in
the western Atlantic as it weakens. As a result, daily convective
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be created by diurnal
heating and mesoscale features such as the afternoon sea breezes
and outflow boundaries. With an easterly flow in place, the
Atlantic sea breeze will be able to advance further inland and
flow will steer convection westward. Therefore, the bulk of
convective showers and storms will occur along the west coast and
interior portions of South Florida for both Sunday and Monday.

The one caveat for Monday is that the outskirts of a tropical wave
may sweep through the southernmost portions of the region,
bringing a deep plume of moisture into the vicinity. This feature
would create an earlier start to convective activity on Monday,
focusing in those southern areas (Miami-Dade, Broward, Monroe and
Collier counties). With an easterly flow in place, the strongest
activity would be expected closer to the west coast as the day
progresses given that is where the strongest convergence will
occur and the Atlantic sea breeze will get pushed further inland
under the easterly regime.

Overall, there will be chances for some stronger storms particularly
on Monday as that wave scrapes the area, but storms are not expected
to become severe due to warmer temperatures aloft in the mid-levels.
Temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid 90s with heat
index values likely around 105-110F, although some spots toward
the west coast could reach as high as 112F. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for today beginning late morning and extending into
the evening. Additional advisories may be needed on Monday,
although this will depend on cloud cover and rain development as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be positioned over
SFL to start the upcoming week, maintaining a moderate easterly
regime over the area. The axis of a low-amplitude tropical wave
will pass south of the area in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with
guidance coming into better agreement that the deeper moisture
associated with this feature will largely pass south of the area,
although the northern edge of the moisture plume may still reach
the southern half of the area. Consequently, the best rain chances
through Tuesday should be focused over southern areas, with the
highest rainfall amounts anticipated near the SW coast due to
enhanced convergence in the easterly regime. Temperatures will
remain slightly above average with highs generally in the low 90s,
and any potential heat advisory concerns would likely be
dependent upon the northward extent of the moisture surge and
associated cloud cover/precipitation.

Drier air should filter in behind the wave during the mid-week period,
with rain chances decreasing to near or (on Wednesday in particular)
even below climatology. E-SErly low-lvl flow will favor the best
rain chances over the western half of the area. Temperatures
should remain near seasonal normals through the period (i.e. highs
in the low 90s). Late week, a TUTT like feature will shift
westward toward the area, which could result in increasing rain
chances for the end of the week, although guidance is not
currently in good agreement on the amplitude/track of this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 856 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Morning showers along the Atlantic will become afternoon storms as
the Atlantic sea breeze advances inland with an afternoon and
evening focus generally west of the east coast terminals towards
the interior and Gulf coast. Short-fused AMDs possible for sub-VFR
impacts due to showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week as high pressure remains situated in the
western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds will remain well below
concerning levels, likely at 2-3 feet in the Atlantic and 2 feet
or less in the Gulf. Thus, overall benign boating conditions will
continue through early next week. The only exception will be near
any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Moderate easterly winds will lead to a moderate rip current risk
along the Atlantic coast through early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  91  80 /  30  40  60  40
West Kendall     93  79  91  78 /  40  40  60  40
Opa-Locka        93  80  92  80 /  40  30  60  40
Homestead        91  80  90  80 /  30  40  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  89  80 /  30  30  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  90  80 /  30  30  60  40
Pembroke Pines   94  80  93  80 /  30  30  60  40
West Palm Beach  91  80  91  79 /  40  20  50  30
Boca Raton       92  80  91  80 /  30  30  50  30
Naples           93  77  93  78 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...RAG