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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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702 FXUS62 KMFL 101626 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1226 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Generally weak low-lvl SWrly flow (around 5 kts 1000-700mb averaged) prevails over South Florida today as we remain on the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. Sea breeze circulations will become dominant this afternoon given the light gradient, with the east coast breeze already beginning its trek inland. The 12Z MFL RAOB, combined with recent averaged ACARS data, indicates PWATs around 2 inches over SEFL corresponding to about the 65th percentile for this time of year. This setup will support scattered thunderstorms focused along the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. The highest storm chances will be over the eastern Interior and western portions of the east coast metro, but some spillover towards the Lake and east coast will remain possible. Although the convective parameter space is not quite as favorable as the last several days, some locally strong microburst-driven gusts and heavy rainfall will remain threats. High temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s with peak heat indices 105-110 degrees. Thunderstorm activity should begin to wane shortly after sunset, with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. For the first time in what seems like ages (largely due to the influence Debby had on our weather this past week) the low-lvl mean flow will back more SErly on Sunday. This will favor the best storm chances over Interior and SWFL, and will also result in temperatures slightly decreasing over the east coast and slightly increasing over the west coast. Heat Advisory concerns will be present once again for MD/Broward (due to their lowered criteria) and also Collier. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 By next week, expansive mid to upper ridging remains established over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Bahamas, allowing for the persistent weak flow pattern to continue. An east to southeasterly surface to 850 mb wind regime can be expected through much of next week as well, which will favor early morning showers/storms along the east coast, and the focus of rain chances over the interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Early in the work week, the introduction of a weak Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume and combined with increasing subsidence aloft thanks to continued stout mid-level ridging are expected to suppress widespread convective activity. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot throughout the long-term period, with overnight lows ranging from the mid-70s to near 80F, and daytime highs in the lower 90s. Abundant low-level moisture will contribute to daily heat index values in the triple digits across all of South Florida. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are likely in the mid-late afternoon time frame near the east coast sites, although direct terminal impacts still remain uncertain. VFR conditions should then prevail this evening into the overnight period. SErly winds will prevail over the east coast sites, and SWrly winds at KAPF through the afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 92 80 92 / 30 30 10 30 West Kendall 77 93 78 93 / 30 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 93 / 30 30 10 30 Homestead 78 91 79 91 / 20 30 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 80 90 / 30 30 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 80 91 / 30 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 79 95 80 95 / 30 30 10 30 West Palm Beach 78 92 78 92 / 30 30 10 30 Boca Raton 78 92 79 92 / 30 30 10 30 Naples 79 92 78 92 / 20 50 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Carr