702
FXUS62 KMFL 101626
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1226 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Generally weak low-lvl SWrly flow (around 5 kts 1000-700mb averaged)
prevails over South Florida today as we remain on the southwestern
periphery of the subtropical high. Sea breeze circulations will
become dominant this afternoon given the light gradient, with the
east coast breeze already beginning its trek inland. The 12Z MFL
RAOB, combined with recent averaged ACARS data, indicates PWATs
around 2 inches over SEFL corresponding to about the 65th
percentile for this time of year. This setup will support
scattered thunderstorms focused along the east coast sea breeze
this afternoon. The highest storm chances will be over the
eastern Interior and western portions of the east coast metro, but
some spillover towards the Lake and east coast will remain
possible. Although the convective parameter space is not quite as
favorable as the last several days, some locally strong
microburst-driven gusts and heavy rainfall will remain threats.
High temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s with peak heat
indices 105-110 degrees.

Thunderstorm activity should begin to wane shortly after sunset,
with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. For the
first time in what seems like ages (largely due to the influence
Debby had on our weather this past week) the low-lvl mean flow
will back more SErly on Sunday. This will favor the best storm
chances over Interior and SWFL, and will also result in
temperatures slightly decreasing over the east coast and slightly
increasing over the west coast. Heat Advisory concerns will be
present once again for MD/Broward (due to their lowered criteria)
and also Collier.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

By next week, expansive mid to upper ridging remains established over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Bahamas, allowing for the persistent weak
flow pattern to continue. An east to southeasterly surface to 850 mb wind
regime can be expected through much of next week as well, which will favor
early morning showers/storms along the east coast, and the focus of rain
chances over the interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon and
evening hours. Early in the work week, the introduction of a weak Saharan
Air Layer (SAL) plume and combined with increasing subsidence aloft thanks
to continued stout mid-level ridging are expected to suppress widespread
convective activity.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot throughout the long-term period,
with overnight lows ranging from the mid-70s to near 80F, and daytime
highs in the lower 90s. Abundant low-level moisture will contribute to
daily heat index values in the triple digits across all of South
Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are likely in the mid-late afternoon time
frame near the east coast sites, although direct terminal impacts
still remain uncertain. VFR conditions should then prevail this
evening into the overnight period. SErly winds will prevail over the
east coast sites, and SWrly winds at KAPF through the afternoon,
with winds becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through
early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will
be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2
ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor
the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered
storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers
and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be
realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  80  92 /  30  30  10  30
West Kendall     77  93  78  93 /  30  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  93 /  30  30  10  30
Homestead        78  91  79  91 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  80  90 /  30  30  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  80  91 /  30  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   79  95  80  95 /  30  30  10  30
West Palm Beach  78  92  78  92 /  30  30  10  30
Boca Raton       78  92  79  92 /  30  30  10  30
Naples           79  92  78  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Carr