192
FXUS62 KMFL 110501
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
101 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A few storms still linger around the Lake region, with isolated
showers also lingering just to the west of the Atlantic metro
areas. Therefore, will keep carrying low-end sct POPs near those
areas until around 11pm, but the deep convection should be ending
soon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks on track and no
other updates are required attm.

Expect another warm night with morning lows remaining in the mid-
upper 70s, warmest along the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Generally weak low-lvl SWrly flow (around 5 kts 1000-700mb averaged)
prevails over South Florida today as we remain on the southwestern
periphery of the subtropical high. Sea breeze circulations will
become dominant this afternoon given the light gradient, with the
east coast breeze already beginning its trek inland. The 12Z MFL
RAOB, combined with recent averaged ACARS data, indicates PWATs
around 2 inches over SEFL corresponding to about the 65th
percentile for this time of year. This setup will support
scattered thunderstorms focused along the east coast sea breeze
this afternoon. The highest storm chances will be over the
eastern Interior and western portions of the east coast metro, but
some spillover towards the Lake and east coast will remain
possible. Although the convective parameter space is not quite as
favorable as the last several days, some locally strong
microburst-driven gusts and heavy rainfall will remain threats.
High temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s with peak heat
indices 105-110 degrees.

Thunderstorm activity should begin to wane shortly after sunset,
with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. For the
first time in what seems like ages (largely due to the influence
Debby had on our weather this past week) the low-lvl mean flow
will back more SErly on Sunday. This will favor the best storm
chances over Interior and SWFL, and will also result in
temperatures slightly decreasing over the east coast and slightly
increasing over the west coast. Heat Advisory concerns will be
present once again for MD/Broward (due to their lowered criteria)
and also Collier.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Mid level ridging will continue to expand over the area through
the early portion of next week as surface high pressure centered
in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico. This will promote a light to moderate
east southeasterly wind flow across the region. At the same time,
guidance continues to hint at a weak Saharan Air Layer pushing
into the region for Monday into Tuesday. While there will still be
enough lower level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm
development along the sea breeze boundaries, convection coverage
may be reduced during this time frame due to the weak SAL as well
as increased subsidence. With east to southeasterly wind flow in
place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will focus
over interior portion of Southwest Florida where sea breeze
boundaries will interact with each other. High temperatures on
Monday and Tuesday will generally range from the lower 90s across
the east coast to the mid 90s across interior portions of
Southwest Florida.

Heading towards Wednesday and Thursday, an amplifying mid level
trough over the Great Lakes region will dig across the Eastern
Seaboard and western Atlantic during this time frame. This will
cause the mid level ridge over the region to break down and
retrograde back to the west northwest over the Gulf of Mexico and
Gulf Coast States. A rather light wind flow will develop at the
surface as a weakening frontal boundary tries to stall out to the
north. Uncertainty rises in the is part of the forecast as the
latest guidance remains in disagreement with the positioning of
the mid level trough to the north as well as the associated
surface frontal boundary. With moisture advection taking place
ahead of the front, this could help to gradually increase the
chances of showers and thunderstorms heading towards the latter
portion of the week. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday
will remain in the low to mid 90s across most areas. With the
increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple
digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame.
This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds
through the morning. Sea-breezes develop this afternoon resulting
in E/SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and
W/SW at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through
early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will
be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2
ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor
the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered
storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers
and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be
realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  80  93  80 /  30  20  20  10
West Kendall     93  77  93  78 /  30  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        93  80  93  80 /  30  20  20  10
Homestead        91  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  80  92  80 /  30  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   96  80  96  80 /  30  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  92  79  92  79 /  40  20  30  10
Boca Raton       93  79  93  80 /  40  20  20  10
Naples           93  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF