![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
192 FXUS62 KMFL 110501 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 101 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A few storms still linger around the Lake region, with isolated showers also lingering just to the west of the Atlantic metro areas. Therefore, will keep carrying low-end sct POPs near those areas until around 11pm, but the deep convection should be ending soon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks on track and no other updates are required attm. Expect another warm night with morning lows remaining in the mid- upper 70s, warmest along the coasts. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Generally weak low-lvl SWrly flow (around 5 kts 1000-700mb averaged) prevails over South Florida today as we remain on the southwestern periphery of the subtropical high. Sea breeze circulations will become dominant this afternoon given the light gradient, with the east coast breeze already beginning its trek inland. The 12Z MFL RAOB, combined with recent averaged ACARS data, indicates PWATs around 2 inches over SEFL corresponding to about the 65th percentile for this time of year. This setup will support scattered thunderstorms focused along the east coast sea breeze this afternoon. The highest storm chances will be over the eastern Interior and western portions of the east coast metro, but some spillover towards the Lake and east coast will remain possible. Although the convective parameter space is not quite as favorable as the last several days, some locally strong microburst-driven gusts and heavy rainfall will remain threats. High temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s with peak heat indices 105-110 degrees. Thunderstorm activity should begin to wane shortly after sunset, with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. For the first time in what seems like ages (largely due to the influence Debby had on our weather this past week) the low-lvl mean flow will back more SErly on Sunday. This will favor the best storm chances over Interior and SWFL, and will also result in temperatures slightly decreasing over the east coast and slightly increasing over the west coast. Heat Advisory concerns will be present once again for MD/Broward (due to their lowered criteria) and also Collier. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Mid level ridging will continue to expand over the area through the early portion of next week as surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This will promote a light to moderate east southeasterly wind flow across the region. At the same time, guidance continues to hint at a weak Saharan Air Layer pushing into the region for Monday into Tuesday. While there will still be enough lower level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze boundaries, convection coverage may be reduced during this time frame due to the weak SAL as well as increased subsidence. With east to southeasterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will focus over interior portion of Southwest Florida where sea breeze boundaries will interact with each other. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will generally range from the lower 90s across the east coast to the mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Heading towards Wednesday and Thursday, an amplifying mid level trough over the Great Lakes region will dig across the Eastern Seaboard and western Atlantic during this time frame. This will cause the mid level ridge over the region to break down and retrograde back to the west northwest over the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast States. A rather light wind flow will develop at the surface as a weakening frontal boundary tries to stall out to the north. Uncertainty rises in the is part of the forecast as the latest guidance remains in disagreement with the positioning of the mid level trough to the north as well as the associated surface frontal boundary. With moisture advection taking place ahead of the front, this could help to gradually increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms heading towards the latter portion of the week. High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will remain in the low to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds through the morning. Sea-breezes develop this afternoon resulting in E/SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and W/SW at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 80 93 80 / 30 20 20 10 West Kendall 93 77 93 78 / 30 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 91 79 91 80 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 80 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 92 80 / 30 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 96 80 96 80 / 30 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 79 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 Boca Raton 93 79 93 80 / 40 20 20 10 Naples 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 50 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF