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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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895 FXUS62 KMFL 110647 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 247 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Conditions across South Florida will remain warm and muggy on Sunday as the Bermuda high builds and extends over the region. As a result, surface winds will begin to veer from the east-southeast this morning. Satellite imagery shows an elongated plume of low-level moisture extending across the western Atlantic and over the Florida peninsula, with PWAT values in the 75th percentile for this time of year (2.0-2.3 inches). This setup will support the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (50-60% chance), beginning along the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area in the early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards the Lake region and the interior. With limited cloud coverage forecast for the morning period, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region on Sunday. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM. It`s worth noting that there is a chance that some areas could escape the extreme heat, especially portions of the East Coast metro where the southeasterly breeze could bring some relief, and areas over the interior where the showers and thunderstorms could help cool things down. The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high continues to expand over the region. A pocket of Saharan dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, ushering in somewhat drier conditions to start the week. This will help knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches). While there will still be enough lower level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze boundaries, convective coverage may be reduced during this time frame due to the weak SAL as well as increased subsidence. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will linger on Tuesday, helping to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage. There will still be enough lower level moisture in place to support convective development over the northern/northeastern parts of the CWA (Lake Okeechobee region and Palm Beach counties). Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern change will promote moisture advection and southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri. High temperatures through the week will remain in the low to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds through the morning. Sea-breezes develop this afternoon resulting in E/SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and W/SW at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 80 93 81 / 30 20 20 10 West Kendall 93 77 93 78 / 30 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 20 10 Homestead 91 79 91 80 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 81 / 30 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 80 92 81 / 30 20 20 0 Pembroke Pines 96 80 96 81 / 30 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 92 79 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 Boca Raton 93 79 93 80 / 40 20 20 0 Naples 93 78 92 78 / 50 30 50 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF