895
FXUS62 KMFL 110647
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
247 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Conditions across South Florida will remain warm and muggy
on Sunday as the Bermuda high builds and extends over the
region. As a result, surface winds will begin to veer from the
east-southeast this morning. Satellite imagery shows an
elongated plume of low-level moisture extending across the
western Atlantic and over the Florida peninsula, with PWAT
values in the 75th percentile for this time of year (2.0-2.3 inches).
This setup will support the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon (50-60% chance), beginning
along the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area
in the early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards
the Lake region and the interior.

With limited cloud coverage forecast for the morning period,
temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of
the region on Sunday. That, combined with the enhanced
low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching
the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period
for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for
all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM. It`s worth noting that
there is a chance that some areas could escape the extreme
heat, especially portions of the East Coast metro where the
southeasterly breeze could bring some relief, and areas over
the interior where the showers and thunderstorms could
help cool things down.

The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high
continues to expand over the region. A pocket of Saharan
dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, ushering
in somewhat drier conditions to start the week. This will help
knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages
(1.7-1.9 inches). While there will still be enough lower level
moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development
along the sea breeze boundaries, convective coverage
may be reduced during this time frame due to the weak
SAL as well as increased subsidence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over
Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly
flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will linger on Tuesday,
helping to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage. There
will still be enough lower level moisture in place to support
convective development over the northern/northeastern parts
of the CWA (Lake Okeechobee region and Palm Beach counties).

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US.
An associated frontal boundary will drop across the
southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida.
This pattern change will promote moisture advection and
southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in
increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low
to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture,
heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach
advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to
be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds
through the morning. Sea-breezes develop this afternoon resulting
in E/SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and
W/SW at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through
early next week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will
be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2
ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor
the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered
storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers
and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be
realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  80  93  81 /  30  20  20  10
West Kendall     93  77  93  78 /  30  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        93  80  93  80 /  30  20  20  10
Homestead        91  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  91  81 /  30  20  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  80  92  81 /  30  20  20   0
Pembroke Pines   96  80  96  81 /  30  20  20  10
West Palm Beach  92  79  92  79 /  40  20  30  10
Boca Raton       93  79  93  80 /  40  20  20   0
Naples           93  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF