854
FXUS62 KMFL 082332
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

ACARS data from Miami International Airport (KMIA) over the last
several data shows a very strong Saharan Dust induced capping
inversion across the area this evening. Evident in the 700-850mb
layer, dry air has kept cloud activity very shallow in nature this
afternoon outside of a few meager updrafts over inland South
Florida. Have reduced rain chances for the region down to 20% for
the remainder of the evening based on the latest observational
trends. Ample CAPE remains across the area which could support an
isolated shower or storm, however the stout capping inversion will
suppress any real spatial abundance of activity this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Surface high pressure holds over southern Florida from the
Atlantic while a mid-level low drifts southwestward through mid-
week. The remnants of Beryl will become absorbed by a longwave
trough over the central United States while will pinch the
Atlantic high pressure eastward.

Besides these features, a Saharan Air Layer will be present over
and around the area for a couple of days. With that comes a
suppression of convective coverage. Accordingly, have trimmed back
rain chances for Tuesday a bit closer to climatology compared to
the previously higher PoPs that have been far more common the last
few days. While activity today should be later to start, there
should be a focus around the State Road 80 corridor and the Lake
Okeechobee region later this afternoon into the evening. A similar
northerly convective focus is expected on Tuesday as well.

Today may be the warmer of the two days with heat index values
dipping for Tuesday. Values will still range from 105 to 110 which
will likely require consideration of a Heat Advisory for portions,
if not all, of South Florida again on Tuesday. Overnight lows will
struggle to fall below 80 in many areas and the urban heat
islands may not fall below the lower 80s tonight which provides
little relief from the heat illness risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Models begin the long term with a remnant cut-off low moving over
the Florida Keys and the southern tip of the peninsula, while the
rest of the state remains under the influence of the SW periphery of
high pressure. This synoptic setup will keep a weather pattern
dominated by weak sfc flow and lingering moisture across SoFlo.

For Wednesday, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms in afternoon, with sea breeze circulations becoming
the main focal point for deep convection over land during the early
afternoon hours. The bulk of the weather should then favor interior
portions of SoFlo during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Storm motion could remain somewhat erratic as outflow boundaries
spread across the area. By Thursday, models show a strengthening of
the Atlantic high, which brings back a more robust easterly wind
regime. Thus, expect afternoon convection to favor the Gulf coast
metro areas, with some late morning/early afternoon showers or
isolated storms along the east coast metro areas.

Temperatures during the long term should remain warm, with afternoon
highs reaching the lower 90s across most areas and heat indices in
the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions and L/V wind flow overnight with sea-breeze
circulations picking up after 16-18z tomorrow. Potential exists
for SHRA/TSRA to develop tomorrow afternoon, however great
uncertainty remains as far as overall coverage. Handled with
VCSH/VCTS for now, but may need TEMPOs and amendments as needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail
across all local waters through Tuesday. Seas will remain in the
1-3 ft range through this period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each afternoon,
and winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers
and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  92  81  92 /  10  40  30  50
West Kendall     78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  92 /  20  40  30  50
Homestead        80  91  80  91 /  10  30  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  20  40  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  91  81  91 /  20  50  30  50
Pembroke Pines   80  94  79  94 /  20  40  30  50
West Palm Beach  79  91  78  91 /  20  50  40  60
Boca Raton       80  92  79  92 /  20  50  30  50
Naples           80  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ063-066>075-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi