537
FXUS62 KMFL 111750
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
150 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Very warm and humid conditions continue across South Florida as
the Bermuda High builds and extends over the area. Plentiful
moisture (PWAT values around 2-2.2 inches) will support scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, generally focusing over
interior and Gulf Coast as low-level flow has switched to out of
the east-southeast. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

The main story this afternoon will be the warm temperatures, with
highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 105-110. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida through 6PM. It`s
worth noting that some areas could escape the extreme heat,
especially portions of the East Coast metro where the
southeasterly breeze could bring some relief, and areas over the
interior where the showers and thunderstorms could help cool
things down.

The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high
continues to expand over the region. A pocket of Saharan
dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, ushering
in somewhat drier conditions to start the week. This will help
knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages
(1.7-1.9 inches). There will be enough low level moisture and
convergence to support a few early morning showers along the east
coast, with afternoon showers thunderstorms chances being reduced
from recent days due to the weak SAL as well as increased
subsidence. The best chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior and Gulf Coast areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over
Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly
flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will linger on Tuesday,
helping to reduce shower and thunderstorm coverage. There
will still be enough lower level moisture in place to support
convective development over the northern/northeastern parts
of the CWA (Lake Okeechobee region and Palm Beach counties).

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US.
An associated frontal boundary will drop across the
southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida.
This pattern change will promote moisture advection and
southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in
increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low
to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture,
heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach
advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to
be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening,
with highest coverage over inland and Gulf Coast areas. These may
result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Sea-breezes
this afternoon will resulting in E/SE winds around 10 kts across
the east coast terminals and W/SW at APF, before winds go light
overnight. VCSH possible early Monday morning along the east coast
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through
early in the upcoming week, although afternoon wind shifts to the
W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas
should remain 2 ft or less over the next few days. Although the
pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances over land,
isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day. In and
around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds
could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  81  93 /  10  30  10  30
West Kendall     77  93  78  93 /  20  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        80  93  80  94 /  10  30  10  30
Homestead        79  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  80  92  81  92 /  10  30   0  20
Pembroke Pines   80  96  81  96 /  10  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  78  93  79  93 /  20  30   0  20
Boca Raton       79  93  80  93 /  10  30   0  20
Naples           77  92  79  93 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Culver