666
FXUS62 KMFL 162318
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
718 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A diffuse boundary remains just south of the area which will
allow for a focus for tropical moisture this afternoon.
Precipitable water values nearing 2.3 inches, a pattern conducive
to coastal convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across
portions of the east coast metro areas could lead to a quick
trigger for urban flooding today. Activity has been sporadic over
the waters and immediate coastal areas this morning and coverage
is expected to increase over the next couple of hours as we
approach peak daytime heating. Steering flow remains very light,
and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the
highest risk within any convective activity today. As a result,
the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from
the Weather Prediction Center. Very low confidence in any one
specific solution, but HREF LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with
localized 7"+ of rain in some portions of the eastern metro
through the evening. While the probability of these higher (7"+)
totals occurring are low, all of the signals for heavier rainfall
are there today so this scenario cannot completely be ignored.

The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for
slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help
provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with lower
shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Extended range models continue to show a deep mid/upper-level trough
across much of the eastern CONUS to kick off the work week;
additionally, another frontal boundary stalls to our north and parks
itself over N. Florida. This will allow the PWAT values to increase
to around 2 to 2.1 inches over South Florida, leading to scattered
to numerous coverage. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge will retreat
from the central portions of the Florida peninsula and the SW
Atlantic, further reinforcing a S/SW flow across SoFlo (Monday-
Wednesday). With this synoptic scenario in place, expect afternoon
convection to favor interior northern and east coast areas at times,
mainly in the afternoon hours with diurnal heating. However, morning
showers are also possible over most of the region due to the
southerly component of the flow to support moisture advection from
the Caribbean for much of the long term. Finally, some long-range
models introduce the possibility of several short waves in the mid
to upper levels of the atmosphere working around the trough of low
pressure and advecting into the state. This could allow 500MB
temperatures to cool some and increase an isolated severe storm
threat towards mid to end of the week.

Long-range model solutions suggest that the Atlantic ridge will
expand back into the area at the end of the extended forecast, with
a weak tropical wave approaching SoFl, advecting more moisture into
the CWA. But we will wait for better intra/inter-model consistency
and move closer in time before making any major adjustments to
extended long-term PoPs/Wx grids.

Expect temperatures to begin the work week to elevate after a brief
respite from the weekend. Afternoon highs should hover in the mid-
90s except lower to mid 90s west coast areas outside of showers and
thunderstorms. Heat index values should be able to get into the 100-
105 range, with some locations reaching up to 108 degrees F. Daytime
convection and cloud cover due to elevated moisture content will
limit the consistency of the oppressive heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The weak boundary will linger overnight, resulting in chances for
showers for sites south of KFLL. Light E/ENE flow will be in place
overnight before increasing to around 10kts out of the E for late
morning and afternoon on Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again with VCTS for the afternoon. At
KAPF, winds in the afternoon become variable at 5-10kts because
the Gulf breeze tries to develop but will not be able to set up
entirely due to a dominant easterly flow pattern.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula.
Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters
today behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick
off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents
to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida,
particularly in the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  79  89 /  40  50  20  40
West Kendall     76  90  76  90 /  40  60  20  40
Opa-Locka        79  91  79  89 /  30  50  20  40
Homestead        78  88  78  88 /  50  60  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  79  88 /  20  40  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  80  90  79  88 /  20  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  92  79  89 /  30  40  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  91  77  89 /  10  20   0  20
Boca Raton       80  91  79  88 /  20  20  10  30
Naples           76  93  76  92 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....CMP
AVIATION...Redman