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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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666 FXUS62 KMFL 162318 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 718 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A diffuse boundary remains just south of the area which will allow for a focus for tropical moisture this afternoon. Precipitable water values nearing 2.3 inches, a pattern conducive to coastal convergence, and recent saturating rainfall across portions of the east coast metro areas could lead to a quick trigger for urban flooding today. Activity has been sporadic over the waters and immediate coastal areas this morning and coverage is expected to increase over the next couple of hours as we approach peak daytime heating. Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any convective activity today. As a result, the area remains under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center. Very low confidence in any one specific solution, but HREF LPMM is showing widespread 2-3" with localized 7"+ of rain in some portions of the eastern metro through the evening. While the probability of these higher (7"+) totals occurring are low, all of the signals for heavier rainfall are there today so this scenario cannot completely be ignored. The boundary will shift south tonight into Sunday, allowing for slightly drier air to move into South Florida. This will help provide some relief from the heat and humidity along with lower shower and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Extended range models continue to show a deep mid/upper-level trough across much of the eastern CONUS to kick off the work week; additionally, another frontal boundary stalls to our north and parks itself over N. Florida. This will allow the PWAT values to increase to around 2 to 2.1 inches over South Florida, leading to scattered to numerous coverage. Meanwhile, the Atlantic ridge will retreat from the central portions of the Florida peninsula and the SW Atlantic, further reinforcing a S/SW flow across SoFlo (Monday- Wednesday). With this synoptic scenario in place, expect afternoon convection to favor interior northern and east coast areas at times, mainly in the afternoon hours with diurnal heating. However, morning showers are also possible over most of the region due to the southerly component of the flow to support moisture advection from the Caribbean for much of the long term. Finally, some long-range models introduce the possibility of several short waves in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere working around the trough of low pressure and advecting into the state. This could allow 500MB temperatures to cool some and increase an isolated severe storm threat towards mid to end of the week. Long-range model solutions suggest that the Atlantic ridge will expand back into the area at the end of the extended forecast, with a weak tropical wave approaching SoFl, advecting more moisture into the CWA. But we will wait for better intra/inter-model consistency and move closer in time before making any major adjustments to extended long-term PoPs/Wx grids. Expect temperatures to begin the work week to elevate after a brief respite from the weekend. Afternoon highs should hover in the mid- 90s except lower to mid 90s west coast areas outside of showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values should be able to get into the 100- 105 range, with some locations reaching up to 108 degrees F. Daytime convection and cloud cover due to elevated moisture content will limit the consistency of the oppressive heat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The weak boundary will linger overnight, resulting in chances for showers for sites south of KFLL. Light E/ENE flow will be in place overnight before increasing to around 10kts out of the E for late morning and afternoon on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again with VCTS for the afternoon. At KAPF, winds in the afternoon become variable at 5-10kts because the Gulf breeze tries to develop but will not be able to set up entirely due to a dominant easterly flow pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula. Seas will build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters today behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A persistent easterly wind flow to close out the week and kick off the weekend could allow for an elevated risk of rip currents to develop along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, particularly in the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 90 79 89 / 40 50 20 40 West Kendall 76 90 76 90 / 40 60 20 40 Opa-Locka 79 91 79 89 / 30 50 20 40 Homestead 78 88 78 88 / 50 60 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 79 88 / 20 40 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 79 88 / 20 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 89 / 30 40 10 30 West Palm Beach 79 91 77 89 / 10 20 0 20 Boca Raton 80 91 79 88 / 20 20 10 30 Naples 76 93 76 92 / 30 40 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....CMP AVIATION...Redman