808
FXUS62 KMFL 112316
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
716 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Looking at the heat index values earlier today and the expected
temps/index values for Monday, will go ahead and issue another
heat advisory for Monday since confidence is high enough attm.
Collier county areas could see heat index values of up to 110
before afternoon showers and deep convection materializes.
Advisory is again valid from 10am through 6pm Monday.

Thunderstorms still linger around the Lake region and along a
southward line down to coastal Mainland Monroe. But with sea breeze
and daytime heating circulations now over, any remaining rain and
storms should gradually dissipate through the next hour or so.
Then expect another warm night with morning lows in the mid-upper
70s, or even low 80s along the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Very warm and humid conditions continue across South Florida as
the Bermuda High builds and extends over the area. Plentiful
moisture (PWAT values around 2-2.2 inches) will support scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, generally focusing over
interior and Gulf Coast as low-level flow has switched to out of
the east-southeast. Storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

The main story this afternoon will be the warm temperatures, with
highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 105-110. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida through 6PM. It`s
worth noting that some areas could escape the extreme heat,
especially portions of the East Coast metro where the
southeasterly breeze could bring some relief, and areas over the
interior where the showers and thunderstorms could help cool
things down.

The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high
continues to expand over the region. A pocket of Saharan
dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, ushering
in somewhat drier conditions to start the week. This will help
knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages
(1.7-1.9 inches). There will be enough low level moisture and
convergence to support a few early morning showers along the east
coast, with afternoon showers thunderstorms chances being reduced
from recent days due to the weak SAL as well as increased
subsidence. The best chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior and Gulf Coast areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Expansive mid level ridging over the region as well as surface
high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across
South Florida through the middle of the week. At the same time, a
weak Saharan Dust plume will try to bring some relatively drier
air across the mid levels on Tuesday before gradually thinning
out on Wednesday. With a weak east to southeasterly wind flow in
place during this time frame, the east coast sea breeze will be
able to push further inland. While there will be enough lower
level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development
along the sea breeze boundaries as they push inland, convective
coverage will be somewhat limited due to the drier air aloft. The
best chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain over the
interior and west coast each afternoon through the middle of the
week. High temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s across
most areas with heat indices generally ranging between 105-110
during this time frame.

Heading towards the second half of the week, the weather pattern
will begin to change as an amplifying mid level trough off to the
northwest digs down through the Southeast and into the western
Atlantic. This will cause the mid level ridge over the region to
break down and retrograde back off to the west into the Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, this will cause a weakening frontal
boundary to approach the region from the north. Uncertainty
increases in this part of the forecast as the latest guidance
tries to bring the boundary into the region and either stall it
out near South Florida, or push it just to the south of the
region by the end of the week. Out ahead of this frontal
boundary, moisture advection will take place which will gradually
increase the convection coverage over South Florida for Thursday
and Friday. With a relatively weak wind flow in place, the daily
sea breezes will push towards the interior and convection
coverage will be maximized over these areas where the sea breeze
boundaries collide each afternoon through Friday. High
temperatures on Thursday and Friday will generally remain in the
lower 90s across most areas.

Depending on how far south the weakening frontal boundary pushes,
some relatively drier air may try to work into the region on a
northeasterly wind flow heading into the first part of the
weekend. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will linger around APF through around
02Z, then VFR should prevail at all terminals through tonight.
Winds turn generally light, then back to a SE flow around 10kt
after 15Z. APF will again see a shift to westerly winds with Gulf
breezes in the afternoon hours. VCTS again expected after 17Z for
the Atl terminals, and after 18-19Z for APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through
early in the upcoming week, although afternoon wind shifts to the
W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas
should remain 2 ft or less over the next few days. Although the
pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances over land,
isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day. In and
around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds
could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  92  81  93 /  10  30  10  30
West Kendall     77  93  78  94 /  20  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        80  94  80  94 /  10  30  10  30
Homestead        79  92  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  80  92  81  92 /  10  30   0  20
Pembroke Pines   81  95  81  96 /  10  30  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  92  79  93 /  20  30   0  20
Boca Raton       79  92  80  93 /  10  30   0  20
Naples           79  92  79  93 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for FLZ063-066>075-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....CWC
UPDATE/AVIATION...17