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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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906 FXUS62 KMFL 120605 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Conditions across South Florida will remain warm and muggy through the short term as the Bermuda high and ridging aloft build and extend over the region. A shallow pocket of Saharan dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, knocking PWAT values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches). Nevertheless, there will still be enough lower level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze convergence boundaries, beginning along the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area in the early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards the Lake region and the interior. The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high continues to expand over the region and the shallow Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. As on Monday, plenty of low-level moisture will still remain in place across the region, promoting scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas. With limited cloud coverage forecast for each morning period, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate on Wednesday, with higher-end chances for shower and thunderstorm activity returning to the forecast for each afternoon. Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern change will promote moisture advection and southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri. High temperatures through the week will remain in the low to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Light and variable winds through mid morning. Sea-breezes develop late morning into the afternoon resulting in E/SE winds around 10 kts for the east coast terminals and a westerly breeze at APF. SCT thunderstorms during the day may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through the weekend. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the weekend. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 81 93 81 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 93 78 94 78 / 30 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 94 80 95 80 / 30 10 20 10 Homestead 92 80 92 80 / 30 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 91 80 92 80 / 30 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 92 81 93 81 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 96 81 97 81 / 30 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 93 80 94 80 / 30 10 20 10 Boca Raton 93 80 94 80 / 30 10 20 10 Naples 92 79 92 80 / 50 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...CMF