906
FXUS62 KMFL 120605
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Conditions across South Florida will remain warm and muggy
through the short term as the Bermuda high and ridging aloft
build and extend over the region. A shallow pocket of Saharan
dust will approach the peninsula in the afternoon, knocking PWAT
values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches).
Nevertheless, there will still be enough lower level moisture to
support shower and thunderstorm development along
the sea breeze convergence boundaries, beginning along
the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area in the
early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards
the Lake region and the interior.

The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high
continues to expand over the region and the shallow
Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. As on Monday,
plenty of low-level moisture will still remain in place across
the region, promoting scattered shower and thunderstorm
development over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas.

With limited cloud coverage forecast for each morning period,
temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of
the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced
low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching
the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period
for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for
all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over
Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly
flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate
on Wednesday, with higher-end chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity returning to the forecast for each afternoon.

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US.
An associated frontal boundary will drop across the
southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida.
This pattern change will promote moisture advection and
southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in
increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low
to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture,
heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach
advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to
be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Light and variable winds through mid morning. Sea-breezes develop
late morning into the afternoon resulting in E/SE winds around 10
kts for the east coast terminals and a westerly breeze at APF. SCT
thunderstorms during the day may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the
area through the first half of the week, although afternoon
wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore
Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through the
weekend. Although the pattern will favor the highest
thunderstorm chances overland, isolated-scattered storms
will be possible through the weekend. In and around
showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and
winds could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  93  81 /  20  10  20  10
West Kendall     93  78  94  78 /  30  10  30  10
Opa-Locka        94  80  95  80 /  30  10  20  10
Homestead        92  80  92  80 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  92  80 /  30  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  81  93  81 /  30  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   96  81  97  81 /  30  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  93  80  94  80 /  30  10  20  10
Boca Raton       93  80  94  80 /  30  10  20  10
Naples           92  79  92  80 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF