![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
032 FXUS62 KMFL 121753 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 153 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Another day of very warm and humid conditions across South Florida as the Bermuda High persists over the area. A shallow pocket of Saharan dust is gradually pushing over the area from the southeast, and will knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches) later on this afternoon and evening. Despite this, there will still be enough low to mid level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze convergence boundaries, beginning along the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area in the early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards the Lake region and the interior through late afternoon and evening. The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high continues to expand over the region and the shallow Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. Plenty of low-level moisture will still be in place across the region, supporting isolated morning showers along the east coast, with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas during the afternoon. With limited cloud coverage expected, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. The warm temperatures combined with muggy dewpoints will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range for much of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida through 6 PM today, and may be needed again on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate on Wednesday, with higher-end chances for shower and thunderstorm activity returning to the forecast for each afternoon. Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern change will promote moisture advection and southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri. High temperatures through the week will remain in the low to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, with highest coverage over inland and Gulf Coast areas. Any convective activity may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Sea- breezes this afternoon will resulting in E/SE winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and W/SW at APF, before winds go light overnight. VCSH possible early Tuesday morning along the east coast terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the local waters through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the nearshore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through at least mid week. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances over land, isolated-scattered storms will be possible over the waters each day. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 94 81 94 / 10 20 10 40 West Kendall 79 94 79 94 / 10 20 10 40 Opa-Locka 81 95 81 94 / 10 20 10 40 Homestead 80 93 80 93 / 10 20 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 92 / 10 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 81 96 82 96 / 10 20 10 40 West Palm Beach 79 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 Boca Raton 80 94 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 78 93 79 92 / 20 30 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Culver