032
FXUS62 KMFL 121753
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Another day of very warm and humid conditions across South
Florida as the Bermuda High persists over the area. A shallow
pocket of Saharan dust is gradually pushing over the area from
the southeast, and will knock PWAT values down to more seasonable
averages (1.7-1.9 inches) later on this afternoon and evening.
Despite this, there will still be enough low to mid level
moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the
sea breeze convergence boundaries, beginning along the westernmost
edges of the East Coast metro area in the early afternoon hours,
and progressing northwest towards the Lake region and the
interior through late afternoon and evening.

The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high
continues to expand over the region and the shallow
Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. Plenty of low-level
moisture will still be in place across the region, supporting
isolated morning showers along the east coast, with isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and
Lake Okeechobee areas during the afternoon.

With limited cloud coverage expected, temperatures will rise to
the low to mid 90s across much of the region both this afternoon
and Tuesday afternoon. The warm temperatures combined with muggy
dewpoints will once again result in heat indices reaching the
105-110 degree range for much of the area. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for all of South Florida through 6 PM today, and may be
needed again on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Surface high and ridging aloft will continue to build over
Florida through the first half of the week, with light southeasterly
flow prevailing. The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate
on Wednesday, with higher-end chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity returning to the forecast for each afternoon.

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US.
An associated frontal boundary will drop across the
southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida.
This pattern change will promote moisture advection and
southerly flow across the region, potentially resulting in
increased chances for storm coverage Wed-Fri.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low
to mid 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture,
heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach
advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to
be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

SCT showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening,
with highest coverage over inland and Gulf Coast areas. Any
convective activity may result in brief flight restrictions and
erratic winds. Sea- breezes this afternoon will resulting in E/SE
winds around 10 kts across the east coast terminals and W/SW at
APF, before winds go light overnight. VCSH possible early Tuesday
morning along the east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the local
waters through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind
shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the nearshore Gulf
waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through at least mid week.
Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances
over land, isolated-scattered storms will be possible over the
waters each day. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally
elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  81  94 /  10  20  10  40
West Kendall     79  94  79  94 /  10  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        81  95  81  94 /  10  20  10  40
Homestead        80  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  81  92 /  10  20  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  81  93 /  10  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  96  82  96 /  10  20  10  40
West Palm Beach  79  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  30
Boca Raton       80  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  30
Naples           78  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Culver