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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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702 FXUS62 KMFL 122334 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 734 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Latest 00Z MFL sounding indicates a pocket of drier air aloft in the mid-levels, which is further reinforced by satellite PWI (precipitable water index) sampling around 1.5-1.7 inches. While still sufficient to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms, this is a departure from the norm in this typically wet period of August. Expect this drying trend to continue through tomorrow, where PoPs are anomalously low (around 20-40 area-wide on average). Storms that do develop will generally be of the garden variety and mostly short-lived. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Another day of very warm and humid conditions across South Florida as the Bermuda High persists over the area. A shallow pocket of Saharan dust is gradually pushing over the area from the southeast, and will knock PWAT values down to more seasonable averages (1.7-1.9 inches) later on this afternoon and evening. Despite this, there will still be enough low to mid level moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze convergence boundaries, beginning along the westernmost edges of the East Coast metro area in the early afternoon hours, and progressing northwest towards the Lake region and the interior through late afternoon and evening. The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high continues to expand over the region and the shallow Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. Plenty of low-level moisture will still be in place across the region, supporting isolated morning showers along the east coast, with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and Lake Okeechobee areas during the afternoon. With limited cloud coverage expected, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. The warm temperatures combined with muggy dewpoints will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range for much of the area. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida through 6 PM today, and may be needed again on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The main story of the long-term will be the weakening of the subtropical ridge and the establishment of east coast troughing and ridging over the SW/South-Central CONUS. This process will begin on Wednesday with PWATs increasing to near climo after the early week dust outbreak, and low-lvl flow being light and sea breeze driven. PoPs should increase to the 40-60% range (highest over the Interior) with the light flow and warm airmass supporting highs in the mid 90s and heat indices above advisory thresholds area-wide. Heading into Thursday a weak frontal boundary will begin to move into northern Florida favoring northwesterly low-lvl flow over the area. This will create an enhanced zone of low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling over the area (especially over the southern half of SFL), which will maintain PoPs in the likely range (although heat headlines look likely before precipitation develops). Forecast uncertainty increases a for the Friday-weekend period as some members of guidance (notably the Euro/ICON) actually have the audacity to tease us with a frontal passage in mid August, while others (the GFS/CMC) favor a more climo solution which shows the postfrontal wind-shift making it through our area and some slight mid- lvl drying but no low-lvl Theta E response. Although the eastern trough will certainly amplify over the weekend (and thankfully steer future Ernesto well clear of the area), I still have skepticism of a clean sfc.frontal passage this time of year so kept temps near climo for the weekend with reduced PoPs, as at least some mid-lvl drying looks likely. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle. Any lingering SHRA/TSRA will likely wane by 01-02Z. Winds generally light/vrb, then BCMG ESE around 5-10 kt on Tuesday by mid-morning. Less overall convection expected due to influx of drier air, though ISLD/SCT storms may still spawn over interior and SW portions of the region. Gulf sea breeze is likely to materialize over/near APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the local waters through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the nearshore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less through at least mid week. Although the pattern will favor the highest thunderstorm chances over land, isolated-scattered storms will be possible over the waters each day. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 93 81 94 / 10 30 10 40 West Kendall 78 94 79 94 / 10 40 10 40 Opa-Locka 81 95 81 94 / 10 30 10 40 Homestead 80 93 80 93 / 10 40 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 81 92 / 10 20 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 81 93 81 93 / 10 20 10 30 Pembroke Pines 81 96 82 97 / 10 30 10 40 West Palm Beach 80 93 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 Boca Raton 80 93 80 94 / 10 20 10 30 Naples 78 93 79 92 / 20 40 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...SRB