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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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609 FXUS62 KMFL 170636 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 236 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Strong ridging over the eastern half of CONUS will gradually diminish through the weekend as a jet streak digs south over the great plains and mid-Atlantic region. South Florida remains far detached from these features, though a subtle veering of boundary layer winds will materialize through the weekend from ENE to ESE. This will maintain a sufficient moisture profile to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period. The greatest convective coverage will likely be realized over the interior and southern portions of the region, including portions of the east coast. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the southern and coastal portions of South Florida today, and thus localized flooding will be a threat to monitor with storms that develop. Upper level trough will continue to deepen across eastern CONUS Sunday, causing a further veering of winds out of the ESE to SE across South Florida. This will allow for the greatest low-level moisture flux convergence to be realized across the interior and northern portion of the region (near Lake Okeechobee). With deep tropical moisture in place (PW around 2.0 to 2.3 inches), expect scattered to even numerous showers and thunderstorms across these locations to round off the weekend. Localized flooding remains the main concern, and cannot rule out a few stronger wind gusts where highest values of SB CAPE and moisture flux convergence become juxtaposed. Max temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region this weekend with heat indices around 95 to 100. Overnight lows will range from the upper 70s along the coast, to the low 70s over the interior. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Extended-range models continue to depict a deep mid-to-upper- level trough dominating much of the eastern CONUS as the work week begins. Additionally, a frontal boundary is expected to stall over northern Florida, enhancing moisture advection across South Florida. As a result, precipitable water (PWAT) values will increase to around 2 to 2.1 inches, which may prove to be a conditionally favorable environment for the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, even in a weakly forced regime. Localized flooding and isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly for slow draining urban regions. The Atlantic ridge will retreat from the central Florida peninsula and the southwestern Atlantic, further establishing a south- southwest flow regime across South Florida into the mid- week period. Under this synoptic pattern, afternoon convection will predominantly affect the interior northern and east coast regions, particularly during the peak of diurnal heating. However, morning showers are also possible due to the persistent southerly flow, which will continue to transport moisture from the Caribbean. Long-range models suggest the potential for several shortwave perturbations to traverse the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere, rotating around the base of a long-wave trough and moving into the region. This could lead to a slight cooling of 500MB temperatures, increasing the threat of isolated severe storms towards mid-to-late week. Towards the end of the extended forecast, the Atlantic ridge is expected to rebuild over the area, potentially accompanied by a weak tropical wave that could bring additional moisture into South Florida. However, we will await greater consistency among models before making significant adjustments to the long-term precipitation and weather grids. For now, expect climatological PoPs, indicating scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage. As the work week progresses, temperatures are anticipated to rise following a short-lived weekend cooldown. Afternoon highs will generally reach the mid-90s, with slightly lower temperatures along the west coast in areas unaffected by showers and thunderstorms. Heat index values will likely range from 100 to 105 degrees, with some locations reaching up to 108 degrees Fahrenheit. The combination of daytime convection and increased cloud cover should mitigate the persistence of oppressive heat, though conditions will remain uncomfortably warm. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Light E/ENE flow will increase to around 10kts out of the E by late morning and afternoon. Isolated showers this morning may bring brief MVFR conditions to the east coast terminals. Showers and thunderstorms become scattered to widespread late morning into the afternoon, and may require TEMPOs. At KAPF, winds in the afternoon may become variable at 5-10kts with the Gulf breeze trying to develop. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Northeast winds will gradually become east this weekend, slowly transitioning to southeast by the end of the weekend. Seas may range from 2 to 4 feet, with higher values being realized over northern waters (coastal/outer Palm Beach). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .BEACHES... Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A persistent easterly wind flow over the weekend and into early next week will bring an elevated risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, particularly in the Palm Beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 80 89 79 / 60 20 50 30 West Kendall 89 76 89 76 / 70 20 60 30 Opa-Locka 91 79 91 78 / 60 20 50 20 Homestead 88 77 89 77 / 70 30 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 79 / 50 20 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 90 79 / 40 20 30 20 Pembroke Pines 92 80 92 79 / 60 20 40 20 West Palm Beach 90 78 92 77 / 20 0 20 10 Boca Raton 91 79 92 78 / 40 10 30 20 Naples 92 77 92 79 / 60 40 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Culver