![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
142 FXUS62 KMFL 131101 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 701 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 South Florida will remain entrenched between two areas of high pressure (one over the western Atlantic, one over the Gulf of Mexico) through the short term as ridging continues to build aloft. A shallow pocket of Saharan dust will remain in place over the region on Tuesday, keeping PWAT values below seasonable averages (1.5-1.7 inches). This will limit convective activity through the day today, with POPs in the 30-50% range for much of the region. Any showers and storms that do develop will form along sea breeze boundaries. The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate on Wednesday, with higher-end chances for shower and thunderstorm activity returning to the forecast for each afternoon with PoPs in the 50-60% range. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during the early afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern change will promote moisture advection and light northerly- northeasterly flow across, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Thursday and Friday. The panorama becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into the weekend, with models disagreeing on what to do with the frontal boundary. While a frontal passage seems unlikely, some drier air could filter in over the region on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in lower PoPs. High temperatures through the week will remain in the low 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR with light easterly to southeasterly wind flow prevails until around 15Z. Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon and evening with a focus inland and over Southwest Florida, particularly around APF. Convection should diminish later in the evening along with the wind speed which should become light and variable. Gulf sea breeze is expected to develop and move across APF turning wind there onshore. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the area through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind shifts to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 82 93 80 / 30 10 40 20 West Kendall 94 79 94 77 / 30 10 50 20 Opa-Locka 94 81 95 80 / 30 10 40 20 Homestead 92 80 93 79 / 30 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 81 92 80 / 20 10 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 82 93 80 / 20 10 30 20 Pembroke Pines 96 82 96 81 / 30 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 94 80 94 79 / 20 10 30 20 Boca Raton 94 80 94 79 / 20 10 30 20 Naples 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17/RAG