585
FXUS62 KMFL 131401
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1001 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

For the morning update, POPs will be adjusted to better reflect
current trend of a few morning showers developing around
eastern Miami-dade and Broward counties. Not much in terms of
thunderstorm activity yet, but it should increase early this
afternoon.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect today, and with temps already
in the upper 80s, there shouldn`t be any problems in verifying it
today. and probably again on Wednesday. The rest of of the
forecast elements look good and no further adjustments are
required for the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

South Florida will remain entrenched between two areas of
high pressure (one over the western Atlantic, one over the
Gulf of Mexico) through the short term as ridging continues
to build aloft. A shallow pocket of Saharan dust will remain
in place over the region on Tuesday, keeping PWAT values
below seasonable averages (1.5-1.7 inches). This will limit
convective activity through the day today, with POPs in the
30-50% range for much of the region. Any showers and
storms that do develop will form along sea breeze boundaries.

The Saharan dust plume will start to dissipate on Wednesday,
with higher-end chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
returning to the forecast for each afternoon with PoPs in the
50-60% range.

Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s
across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined
with the enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result
in heat indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during
the early afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a
Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from
10 AM to 6 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An
associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US,
potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern
change will promote moisture advection and light northerly-
northeasterly flow across, potentially resulting in increased
chances for storm coverage Thursday and Friday. The panorama
becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into the weekend, with
models disagreeing on what to do with the frontal boundary. While
a frontal passage seems unlikely, some drier air could filter in
over the region on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in lower PoPs.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low 90s
across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices
will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory
criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR with light easterly to southeasterly wind flow prevails until
around 15Z. Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon
and evening with a focus inland and over Southwest Florida,
particularly around APF. Convection should diminish later in the
evening along with the wind speed which should become light and
variable. Gulf sea breeze is expected to develop and move across
APF turning wind there onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail over the area
through the first half of the week, although afternoon wind shifts
to the W-SW will be possible over the near-shore Gulf waters.
Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  82  93  80 /  30  10  40  20
West Kendall     94  79  94  77 /  30  10  50  20
Opa-Locka        94  81  95  80 /  30  10  40  20
Homestead        92  80  93  79 /  30  20  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  93  82  93  80 /  20  10  30  20
Pembroke Pines   96  82  96  81 /  30  10  40  20
West Palm Beach  94  80  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
Boca Raton       94  80  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
Naples           93  80  93  80 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
UPDATE/AVIATION...17