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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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218 FXUS62 KMFL 131705 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The overall synoptic scenario for the short term hasn`t changed much with a high pressure system over the central Atlantic b ringing generally weak to moderate SW flow across SoFlo, while another high pressure cell persists over most of the GOMEX. Meanwhile, models also show some drier air filtering into the area as a mid level ridge establishes. This will also allow for a swath of Saharan dust to linger across region today. Latest model and sounding PWATs dropped into the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range, which will help in limiting convective activity. Best chances for a few thunderstorms to form will be with afternoon sea breeze boundaries, which may become focal points for deeper convection. POPs remain in the 30-50% range for much of the region. A modest increase in moisture is anticipated for Wednesday, as the Saharan Dust slowly dissipate. This will result in better chances for showers and storms to develop, especially in the afternoon hours. Expect POPs in the 50-60 percent range each afternoon, along with an isolated cell or two becoming strong or close to severe at time. In terms of temperatures, the hot trend continues with afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, along with abundant low level moisture remaining in place. Therefore, expect heat index values to reach the 105-110 degree range each day with peak values during the early afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today and on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US, potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern change will promote moisture advection and light northerly- northeasterly flow across, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage Thursday and Friday. The panorama becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into the weekend, with models disagreeing on what to do with the frontal boundary. While a frontal passage seems unlikely, some drier air could filter in over the region on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in lower PoPs. High temperatures through the week will remain in the low 90s across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Moderate SE winds will prevail through 00Z, expect for westerly flow over APF with Gulf breezes. Isolated to scattered storms are possible through early this evening with a focus inland and over Southwest Florida, particularly around APF. Convection should diminish later this evening along with winds again become light and variable, along with prevailing VFR after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Generally ESE winds at around 10kt should prevail over the coastal waters through the first half of the week, expect for afternoon periods of westerly flow along the Gulf coastal waters with sea breezes. Seas should remain around 2 ft or less. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 93 80 94 / 10 40 20 60 West Kendall 79 94 77 94 / 10 50 20 60 Opa-Locka 81 95 80 94 / 10 40 20 60 Homestead 80 93 79 93 / 20 40 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 92 80 92 / 10 30 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 82 93 80 93 / 10 30 20 60 Pembroke Pines 82 96 81 97 / 10 40 20 60 West Palm Beach 80 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 50 Boca Raton 80 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Naples 80 93 80 92 / 20 30 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...17 LONG TERM....ATV