218
FXUS62 KMFL 131705
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The overall synoptic scenario for the short term hasn`t changed much
with a  high pressure system over the central Atlantic b ringing
generally weak to moderate SW flow across SoFlo, while another high
pressure cell persists over most of the GOMEX. Meanwhile, models
also show some drier air filtering into the area as a mid level
ridge establishes. This will also allow for a swath of Saharan dust
to linger across region today. Latest model and sounding PWATs
dropped into the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range, which will help in
limiting convective activity. Best chances for a few thunderstorms
to form will be with afternoon sea breeze boundaries, which may
become focal points for deeper convection. POPs remain in the 30-50%
range for much of the region.

A modest increase in moisture is anticipated for Wednesday, as the
Saharan Dust slowly dissipate. This will result in better chances
for showers and storms to develop, especially in the afternoon
hours. Expect POPs in the 50-60 percent range each afternoon, along
with an isolated cell or two becoming strong or close to severe at
time.

In terms of temperatures, the hot trend continues with afternoon
highs in the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, along with abundant
low level moisture remaining in place. Therefore, expect heat index
values to reach the 105-110 degree range each day with peak values
during the early afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today and on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Ridging will begin to break down towards the latter part of the
week as an amplifying trough digs across the eastern US. An
associated frontal boundary will drop across the southeastern US,
potentially stalling out over northern Florida. This pattern
change will promote moisture advection and light northerly-
northeasterly flow across, potentially resulting in increased
chances for storm coverage Thursday and Friday. The panorama
becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into the weekend, with
models disagreeing on what to do with the frontal boundary. While
a frontal passage seems unlikely, some drier air could filter in
over the region on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in lower PoPs.

High temperatures through the week will remain in the low 90s
across most areas. With the increase in moisture, heat indices
will soar into the triple digits and may approach advisory
criteria during this time frame. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Moderate SE winds will prevail through 00Z, expect for westerly flow
over APF with Gulf breezes. Isolated to scattered storms are
possible through early this evening with a focus inland and over
Southwest Florida, particularly around APF. Convection should
diminish later this evening along with winds again become light and
variable, along with prevailing VFR after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Generally ESE winds at around 10kt should prevail over the coastal
waters through the first half of the week, expect for afternoon
periods of westerly flow along the Gulf coastal waters with sea
breezes. Seas should remain around 2 ft or less. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  93  80  94 /  10  40  20  60
West Kendall     79  94  77  94 /  10  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        81  95  80  94 /  10  40  20  60
Homestead        80  93  79  93 /  20  40  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  80  92 /  10  30  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  82  93  80  93 /  10  30  20  60
Pembroke Pines   82  96  81  97 /  10  40  20  60
West Palm Beach  80  94  79  94 /  10  30  20  50
Boca Raton       80  94  79  94 /  10  30  20  60
Naples           80  93  80  92 /  20  30  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...17
LONG TERM....ATV