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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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697 FXUS62 KMFL 131846 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 246 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The overall synoptic scenario for the short term hasn`t changed much with a high pressure system over the central Atlantic b ringing generally weak to moderate SW flow across SoFlo, while another high pressure cell persists over most of the GOMEX. Meanwhile, models also show some drier air filtering into the area as a mid level ridge establishes. This will also allow for a swath of Saharan dust to linger across region today. Latest model and sounding PWATs dropped into the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range, which will help in limiting convective activity. Best chances for a few thunderstorms to form will be with afternoon sea breeze boundaries, which may become focal points for deeper convection. POPs remain in the 30-50% range for much of the region. A modest increase in moisture is anticipated for Wednesday, as the Saharan Dust slowly dissipate. This will result in better chances for showers and storms to develop, especially in the afternoon hours. Expect POPs in the 50-60 percent range each afternoon, along with an isolated cell or two becoming strong or close to severe at time. In terms of temperatures, the hot trend continues with afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, along with abundant low level moisture remaining in place. Therefore, expect heat index values to reach the 105-110 degree range each day with peak values during the early afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today and on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The synoptic pattern through the extended period will feature a seasonably amplified mid-to-upper-level trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic, with an associated ridge extending over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will persist across the southeastern U.S., with periodic reinforcement as a low- pressure system migrates southeastward early next week. This pattern will result in a weakened and displaced Bermuda High, positioned northeast of its climatological mean, leading to a predominantly weak and sea breeze-driven flow regime across South Florida. Northerly to northeasterly flow will facilitate moisture advection into the region, with precipitable water (PWAT) values initially above climatological norms. However, as low-level flow weakens under the influence of high pressure over the western Gulf, PWATs are expected to decrease slightly below average by the weekend. Convective activity will likely be enhanced at the start of the period, driven by the combination of elevated PWATs, mesoscale lift associated with sea breeze convergence, and subtle synoptic- scale lift as vorticity maxima rotate around the base of the eastern U.S. trough. With weak steering flow, the highest precipitation probabilities are expected over the interior, particularly near the intersection of the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes. However, convective development along both coasts remains possible, especially as outflow boundaries from interior storms propagate outward. Given the anticipated slow storm motion, seasonably high PWATs, and deep warm cloud layers, the primary hazards will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. The extent of these impacts will be highly dependent on storm placement. Temperature-wise, conditions will remain near seasonal norms, with daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. The GFS model continues to indicate a decrease in dew point temperatures and a slight drop in ambient temperatures, driven by a fresh northeasterly wind flow. This pattern is supported by the anticipated passage of Hurricane Ernesto well offshore and the deepening trough over the eastern CONUS. Consequently, PWAT values are expected to moderate as moisture is preferentially drawn northward toward a frontal boundary over northern Florida, with an influx of more stable, drier air into the region. This should result in a modest reduction in overall moisture content across the CWA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Moderate SE winds will prevail through 00Z, expect for westerly flow over APF with Gulf breezes. Isolated to scattered storms are possible through early this evening with a focus inland and over Southwest Florida, particularly around APF. Convection should diminish later this evening along with winds again become light and variable, along with prevailing VFR after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Generally ESE winds at around 10kt should prevail over the coastal waters through the first half of the week, expect for afternoon periods of westerly flow along the Gulf coastal waters with sea breezes. Seas should remain around 2 ft or less. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 94 80 94 / 10 40 20 60 West Kendall 78 95 77 94 / 10 50 20 70 Opa-Locka 81 95 80 94 / 10 40 10 60 Homestead 80 93 79 93 / 20 40 10 60 Fort Lauderdale 81 93 81 92 / 10 30 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 81 93 81 93 / 10 30 20 60 Pembroke Pines 82 97 81 96 / 10 40 10 60 West Palm Beach 80 94 79 94 / 10 30 20 60 Boca Raton 80 94 80 94 / 10 30 20 60 Naples 80 93 80 92 / 20 30 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....Pine AVIATION...99