589
FXUS62 KMFL 132326
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The overall synoptic scenario for the short term hasn`t changed much
with a  high pressure system over the central Atlantic b ringing
generally weak to moderate SW flow across SoFlo, while another high
pressure cell persists over most of the GOMEX. Meanwhile, models
also show some drier air filtering into the area as a mid level
ridge establishes. This will also allow for a swath of Saharan dust
to linger across region today. Latest model and sounding PWATs
dropped into the 1.5 to 1.7 inches range, which will help in
limiting convective activity. Best chances for a few thunderstorms
to form will be with afternoon sea breeze boundaries, which may
become focal points for deeper convection. POPs remain in the 30-50%
range for much of the region.

A modest increase in moisture is anticipated for Wednesday, as the
Saharan Dust slowly dissipate. This will result in better chances
for showers and storms to develop, especially in the afternoon
hours. Expect POPs in the 50-60 percent range each afternoon, along
with an isolated cell or two becoming strong or close to severe at
time.

In terms of temperatures, the hot trend continues with afternoon
highs in the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, along with abundant
low level moisture remaining in place. Therefore, expect heat index
values to reach the 105-110 degree range each day with peak values
during the early afternoon hours. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today and on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The synoptic pattern through the extended period will feature a
seasonably amplified mid-to-upper-level trough over the eastern
United States and the western Atlantic, with an associated ridge
extending over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will persist across
the southeastern U.S., with periodic reinforcement as a low-
pressure system migrates southeastward early next week. This
pattern will result in a weakened and displaced Bermuda High,
positioned northeast of its climatological mean, leading to a
predominantly weak and sea breeze-driven flow regime across South
Florida. Northerly to northeasterly flow will facilitate moisture
advection into the region, with precipitable water (PWAT) values
initially above climatological norms. However, as low-level flow
weakens under the influence of high pressure over the western
Gulf, PWATs are expected to decrease slightly below average by the
weekend.

Convective activity will likely be enhanced at the start of the
period, driven by the combination of elevated PWATs, mesoscale
lift associated with sea breeze convergence, and subtle synoptic-
scale lift as vorticity maxima rotate around the base of the
eastern U.S. trough. With weak steering flow, the highest
precipitation probabilities are expected over the interior,
particularly near the intersection of the Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes. However, convective development along both coasts remains
possible, especially as outflow boundaries from interior storms
propagate outward. Given the anticipated slow storm motion,
seasonably high PWATs, and deep warm cloud layers, the primary
hazards will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. The extent
of these impacts will be highly dependent on storm placement.
Temperature-wise, conditions will remain near seasonal norms, with
daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid to
upper 70s.

The GFS model continues to indicate a decrease in dew point
temperatures and a slight drop in ambient temperatures, driven by
a fresh northeasterly wind flow. This pattern is supported by the
anticipated passage of Hurricane Ernesto well offshore and the
deepening trough over the eastern CONUS. Consequently, PWAT values
are expected to moderate as moisture is preferentially drawn
northward toward a frontal boundary over northern Florida, with an
influx of more stable, drier air into the region. This should
result in a modest reduction in overall moisture content across
the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday afternoon, with the highest risks near the Broward and
Miami-Dade terminals. Winds will trend light and variable
overnight, becoming more E-SE by Wednesday afternoon over the east
coast sites, and W-NW at KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Generally ESE winds at around 10kt should prevail over the coastal
waters through the first half of the week, expect for afternoon
periods of westerly flow along the Gulf coastal waters with sea
breezes. Seas should remain around 2 ft or less. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  94  80  94 /  10  50  20  60
West Kendall     78  95  77  94 /  10  60  20  70
Opa-Locka        81  95  80  94 /  10  50  10  60
Homestead        80  93  79  93 /  20  50  10  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  81  92 /  10  40  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  81  93 /  10  40  20  60
Pembroke Pines   82  97  81  96 /  10  50  10  60
West Palm Beach  80  94  79  94 /  10  40  20  60
Boca Raton       80  94  80  94 /  10  40  20  60
Naples           80  93  80  92 /  20  30  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CMP
AVIATION...Carr