501
FXUS62 KMFL 272339
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The Atlantic sea breeze has kicked in, and instability due to
diurnal heating, will help fuel showers and a few strong to severe
thunderstorms today. While the incoming Saharan Dust has led to
some hazy and drier conditions, there have been no issues igniting
several storms across Palm Beach County early this afternoon. The
WPC`s excessive rainfall outlook continues to include a majority
of our eastern counties in the marginal risk (at least 5% risk of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding). Therefore, any
heavy downpours associated with strong thunderstorms or slow
moving showers may lead to localized flooding, especially in the
urban areas. SPC continues to include the same area in the
marginal risk for strong, damaging winds. Along with strong gusty
winds and heavy downpours, small hail will be another potential
hazard associated with these storms due to cooler air aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The stubborn mid level low will continue to slowly push into the
Florida Panhandle and Deep South as today progresses. This
progression of the mid level disturbance will switch the mid level
steering flow to more of a light south to southwesterly direction
throughout the day. At the surface, South Florida will continue to
sit on the western periphery of an area of high pressure centered in
the western Atlantic. With the background synoptic flow remaining
light out of the south southeast, this will allow for general wind
flow to become sea breeze driven as the day progresses.

At the same time, a relatively thick Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
continue to push over the region from the southeast today. With the
mid level disturbance pushing further up to the northwest today and
the Saharan Air Layer settling in, this may help to slightly lower
PWAT values across the region as some drier air works into the mid
levels. The latest guidance shows PWAT values ranging between 1.7
and 1.9 inches across most of the area throughout the day. With the
main area of deep tropical moisture off to the northwest, convection
coverage may start to decrease a bit today and start a bit later
when compared to the past couple of days. The colder air aloft will
still remain in place as 500mb temperatures look to range between -8
and -9C throughout a good portion of the day. This combined with a
modest amount of instability provided by diurnal heating will be
enough to keep the possibility of a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms in place especially along and north of Alligator Alley
where instability will be maximized. The strongest storms could
contain strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail.

Heading into Saturday, what is left of the mid level low will remain
parked over the Southeast while some weak mid level ridging will try
to sneak into the area from the east. At the same time, the Saharan
Air Layer will remain firmly entrenched across South Florida during
this time frame. These features will help to bring some more drier
air into the region as the latest guidance suite shows PWAT values
ranging between 1.5 and 1.7 inches especially across eastern and
southern areas. PWAT values will remain slightly higher, (1.7 to 1.9
inches), across most of Southwest Florida. At the surface, high
pressure will remain parked in the western Atlantic which will allow
for a light southeasterly synoptic wind flow to redevelop. This may
bring a return of a more typical summertime pattern for Saturday as
convection will largely be sea breeze driven. The highest chances of
convection will start out along the east coast in the morning before
shifting towards the interior and west during the mid to late
afternoon hours.

High temperatures for today and Saturday will be typical for this
time of year as they will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The weak mid level ridging in place will be rather short lived as
that starts to push out of the region Saturday night into Sunday as
yet another mid level TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough)
approaches the region from the Bahamas. The latest guidance suite
remains in good agreement with showing the mid level disturbance
slowly pushing across the Florida Peninsula later on Sunday and into
the early portion of next week. The Saharan Air Layer will remain
firmly entrenched across the region through the second half of the
weekend before slowly starting to thin out during the early portion
of the week. This TUTT will help to bring an extra source of lift
and instability to South Florida during the early portion of the
week and with the Saharan Dust beginning to thin out, moisture
advection will take place across the region which will help to
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time
frame.

Sunday will remain as another transition day with plenty of Saharan
Dust in place across the mid levels which will result in lower
convective coverage along with sea breezes being the main driver of
convective initiation. The highest chances will start out in the
morning along the east coast and then will shift towards the
interior and west in the afternoon. Heading into Monday and Tuesday
when the TUTT slowly pushes over the Florida Peninsula and moisture
advection take place, this will help to enhance the diurnal pattern
of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. With colder air
aloft combined with a modest amount of instability during peak
diurnal heating, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
will be possible once again each afternoon during the early portion
of the week. The best chances of these strong thunderstorms will be
over the interior where sea breeze boundaries and other mesoscale
boundaries collide and interact with each other. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, strong gusty
winds, and small hail. High temperatures for the second half of the
weekend and into early next week will remain in the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most areas.

By the middle portion of the week, the uncertainty in the forecast
rises a bit as the ensemble and global guidance solutions start to
diverge. Strong mid level ridging over the western Atlantic will try
to push westward towards the region, however, guidance remains in
disagreement in regards to how long the mid level TUTT holds on over
the region. This will have an influence on the sensible weather
pattern across the area as if the TUTT hangs on longer, it will
result in higher chances of showers and thunderstorms during the
middle of the week. If the ridge builds in faster, it will result in
a return to more of a typical summertime pattern with showers and
storms favoring the interior and west coast during the afternoon and
evening hours. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and
keeps the chances of showers and storms close to climatology. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Periods of sub-VFR conditions will remain possible at KPBI early
this evening as showers gradually diminsh. VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere through the overnight and most of Saturday.
Light winds overnight will increase out of the SE after 15z.
Scattered showers and storms will develop once again on Saturday
afternoon, however most the activity should remain west of the
terminals. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 18z
and scattered storms will be possible late in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A gentle east to southeasterly wind flow over most of the local
waters today will gradually become more southeasterly heading into
the upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters
will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day during this
time frame. Any thunderstorm can produce brief periods of rough
seas along with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  78  89 /  20  40  10  50
West Kendall     76  90  74  89 /  10  40  10  50
Opa-Locka        80  92  79  91 /  20  40  10  50
Homestead        79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  78  88 /  20  50  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  78  89 /  20  50  20  50
Pembroke Pines   81  93  81  92 /  20  40  10  50
West Palm Beach  78  90  77  89 /  30  60  20  50
Boca Raton       79  91  78  90 /  30  50  20  60
Naples           75  91  75  89 /  40  70  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC