330
FXUS62 KMFL 141335
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
935 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Skies remain mostly clear across South Florida which should warm
most of the area above Heat Advisory criteria by the next hour or
so. Some very localized portions of South Florida may briefly
reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria (particularly interior
locations) but will be holding with the existing Heat Advisory
for this update as any heat index values above 110 should be
somewhat brief and isolated. Internal probabilistic guidance pegs
the probability of reaching 110 or higher heat index values at 30%
with highest probs in Hendry, Glades and Collier counties. East
coast counties remain around 10% or less. Some areas will get a
bit of relief from sea breeze showers and thunderstorms as well.
Nonetheless, quite a hazardous day in terms of heat regardless and
everyone should be doing their best to stay hydrated as this is
the best way to prevent heat-related illness. &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to
an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western
Atlantic. This will allow for an associated frontal boundary to
slink across northern Florida today, then drop southward on
Thursday. Moisture advection will increase as a result, as winds
shift from north-northeast, potentially resulting in increased
chances for storm coverage Wednesday and Thursday (50-60% chance).
The best chances for convective initiation will be along sea
breeze boundary collisions over the interior.

Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across
much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the
enhanced low-level moisture, will once again result in heat
indices reaching the 105-110 degree range during the early
afternoon period for much of the area. As such, a Heat Advisory is
in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...Collier and
Palm Beach County
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The weak, diffuse boundary may linger across central/South
Florida on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and
enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the region. Conditions begin to improve behind this
boundary as drier air filters in over the region over the weekend
resulting in lower PoPs and dew points. This should provide some
relief from the oppressive heat of the past week, with high temps
in the low 90s and peak heat indices in the upper 90s and lower
100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Generally VFR with light and variable wind through the early AM.
Sea breeze development is forecast with an onshore flow developing
at most sites by late morning/early afternoon and an increase in
convective activity. Sub-VFR possible at terminals impacted by
showers or thunderstorms later today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the
Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly-
northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas
should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  80  93  80 /  50  30  80  40
West Kendall     95  77  94  77 /  60  30  80  40
Opa-Locka        95  80  94  79 /  50  30  80  30
Homestead        93  78  92  78 /  60  30  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  92  80 /  50  30  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  94  80  92  80 /  50  30  70  30
Pembroke Pines   97  80  96  80 /  50  30  70  30
West Palm Beach  95  80  92  79 /  50  30  70  30
Boca Raton       95  80  93  79 /  50  30  70  30
Naples           92  80  92  77 /  40  30  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Rizzuto