![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
931 FXUS62 KMFL 141643 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1243 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow for an associated frontal boundary to slink across northern Florida today, then drop southward on Thursday. Moisture advection will increase as a result, as winds shift from north-northeast, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage today and Thursday (50-60% chance). The best chances for convective initiation will be along sea breeze boundary collisions across interior South Florida. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, have once again resulted in heat indices rising into the 105-110 degree range. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The weak, diffuse boundary may linger across central/South Florida on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region. Conditions begin to improve behind this boundary as drier air filters in over the region over the weekend resulting in lower PoPs and dew points. This should provide some relief from the oppressive heat of the past week, with high temps in the low 90s and peak heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Diurnal thunderstorms likely again today and tomorrow afternoon with light and variable flow during the overnight and early morning hours. Most convection should remain away from eastern sites as sea breezes push inland although some sites may need short-fuse amendments. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly- northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 90 / 30 80 40 60 West Kendall 77 94 77 91 / 30 80 40 70 Opa-Locka 80 94 79 91 / 30 80 30 60 Homestead 78 92 78 90 / 30 70 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 90 / 30 70 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 92 80 90 / 30 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 80 96 80 93 / 30 70 30 60 West Palm Beach 80 92 79 90 / 30 70 30 40 Boca Raton 80 93 79 91 / 30 70 30 50 Naples 80 92 77 92 / 30 70 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV/Rizzuto LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto