968
FXUS62 KMFL 141855
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to
an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western
Atlantic. This will allow for an associated frontal boundary to
slink across northern Florida today, then drop southward on
Thursday. Moisture advection will increase as a result, as winds
shift from north-northeast, potentially resulting in increased
chances for storm coverage today and Thursday (50-60% chance).
The best chances for convective initiation will be along sea
breeze boundary collisions across interior South Florida.

Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across
much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the
enhanced low-level moisture, have once again resulted in heat
indices rising into the 105-110 degree range. As such, a Heat
Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this
weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an
overall weak flow pattern. As a result, PoPs decrease into the 20-
30% range for the weekend with convection expected to be primarily
isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will amplify
across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for ascent
which will occur simultaneously with some moisture resurgence. As
this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually
rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week.

Dew points are expected to fall with the drier air from the upper
70s to the lower 70s for the weekend and on Monday, allowing for
some relief from the high humidity and elevated heat indices. Heat
index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of
South Florida over the weekend and on Monday before beginning to
rise again. High temperatures each day are projected in the low 90s
for the weekend, with a gradual rise to the mid 90s by the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Diurnal thunderstorms likely again today and tomorrow afternoon
with light and variable flow during the overnight and early
morning hours. Most convection should remain away from eastern
sites as sea breezes push inland although some sites may need
short-fuse amendments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the
Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly-
northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas
should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the
Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly-
northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas
should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  90 /  30  70  50  60
West Kendall     77  94  77  90 /  20  80  50  70
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  91 /  30  80  50  60
Homestead        78  93  78  90 /  20  70  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  79  89 /  30  70  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  80  90 /  30  80  40  50
Pembroke Pines   80  96  80  93 /  30  80  40  60
West Palm Beach  79  93  79  90 /  30  80  40  40
Boca Raton       80  93  79  90 /  30  70  50  50
Naples           80  93  78  92 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Rizzuto