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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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968 FXUS62 KMFL 141855 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow for an associated frontal boundary to slink across northern Florida today, then drop southward on Thursday. Moisture advection will increase as a result, as winds shift from north-northeast, potentially resulting in increased chances for storm coverage today and Thursday (50-60% chance). The best chances for convective initiation will be along sea breeze boundary collisions across interior South Florida. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon. That, combined with the enhanced low-level moisture, have once again resulted in heat indices rising into the 105-110 degree range. As such, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida from 10 AM to 6 PM today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an overall weak flow pattern. As a result, PoPs decrease into the 20- 30% range for the weekend with convection expected to be primarily isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will amplify across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for ascent which will occur simultaneously with some moisture resurgence. As this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week. Dew points are expected to fall with the drier air from the upper 70s to the lower 70s for the weekend and on Monday, allowing for some relief from the high humidity and elevated heat indices. Heat index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of South Florida over the weekend and on Monday before beginning to rise again. High temperatures each day are projected in the low 90s for the weekend, with a gradual rise to the mid 90s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Diurnal thunderstorms likely again today and tomorrow afternoon with light and variable flow during the overnight and early morning hours. Most convection should remain away from eastern sites as sea breezes push inland although some sites may need short-fuse amendments. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly- northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Gentle easterly-southeasterly winds will prevail across the Atlantic local waters through Thursday, while westerly- northwesterly winds will materialize across the Gulf waters. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 90 / 30 70 50 60 West Kendall 77 94 77 90 / 20 80 50 70 Opa-Locka 80 94 79 91 / 30 80 50 60 Homestead 78 93 78 90 / 20 70 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 79 89 / 30 70 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 80 90 / 30 80 40 50 Pembroke Pines 80 96 80 93 / 30 80 40 60 West Palm Beach 79 93 79 90 / 30 80 40 40 Boca Raton 80 93 79 90 / 30 70 50 50 Naples 80 93 78 92 / 30 70 30 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto