391
FXUS62 KMFL 150620
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
220 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface boundary will be moving across South Florida today
as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast.
Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from
north-northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range.
This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by
the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this
afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops
south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south
of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection
and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula.

High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon
ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 -
112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will
be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A dry air mass will filter in behind the surface boundary on
Saturday, ushering in milder conditions for the weekend. PoPs will
drop into the 20-30% range as a result with convection expected
to be primarily isolated. We may also finally get a break from the
oppressive heat this weekend, with high temperatures in the low
90s and dew points dropping the upper 70s to the lower 70s, which
will help keep heat indices at or below 100 through Monday.

A return to more typical summertime conditions is forecast for
next week as troughing once again builds over the East Coast and
chances for afternoon showers and storms rise back to the 40-60%
range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Generally VFR with light and variable wind flow overnight. Flow
will turn onshore and pick up as the sea breeze develops and
advances inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be focused along
the sea breeze as it advances inland which could bring bouts of
sub-VFR that could require short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the
peninsula on Thursday. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but
could build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on
Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will
be possible through the period. In and around showers and
thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  79  89  79 /  80  50  60  20
West Kendall     94  76  90  75 /  80  50  60  30
Opa-Locka        94  78  90  77 /  80  50  60  20
Homestead        93  78  89  77 /  80  60  70  30
Fort Lauderdale  92  79  88  79 /  70  50  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  93  80  89  79 /  80  50  60  20
Pembroke Pines   96  80  91  79 /  80  50  60  20
West Palm Beach  93  79  90  78 /  80  50  40  10
Boca Raton       94  78  90  79 /  80  50  50  10
Naples           93  78  91  75 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...RAG