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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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737 FXUS62 KMFL 151110 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 710 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface boundary will be moving across South Florida today as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast. Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from north-northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula. High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 - 112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A dry air mass will filter in behind the surface boundary on Saturday, ushering in milder conditions for the weekend. PoPs will drop into the 20-30% range as a result with convection expected to be primarily isolated. We may also finally get a break from the oppressive heat this weekend, with high temperatures in the low 90s and dew points dropping the upper 70s to the lower 70s, which will help keep heat indices at or below 100 through Monday. A return to more typical summertime conditions is forecast for next week as troughing once again builds over the East Coast and chances for afternoon showers and storms rise back to the 40-60% range. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Generally VFR with light and variable wind flow early this morning. Flow will turn onshore and pick up as the sea breeze develops and advances inland. Showers and thunderstorms will be focused along the sea breeze as it advances inland which could bring bouts of sub-VFR that could require short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula on Thursday. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and thunderstorms, locally elevated seas and winds could be realized. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 89 79 / 80 50 60 20 West Kendall 94 76 90 75 / 80 50 60 30 Opa-Locka 94 78 90 77 / 80 50 60 20 Homestead 93 78 89 77 / 80 60 70 30 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 88 79 / 70 50 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 89 79 / 80 50 60 20 Pembroke Pines 96 80 91 79 / 80 50 60 20 West Palm Beach 93 79 90 78 / 80 50 40 10 Boca Raton 94 78 90 79 / 80 50 50 10 Naples 93 78 91 75 / 60 40 60 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...Rizzuto