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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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337 FXUS62 KMFL 151813 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface boundary is moving across South Florida today as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast. Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from north- northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula. High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 - 112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an overall weak flow pattern. Thus, PoPs decrease into the 20-30% range over most of the region for the weekend with convection expected to be primarily isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will amplify across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for ascent which will occur simultaneously with some moisture resurgence. As this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week. Due to the drier air advecting into South Florida, dew points are expected to fall from the upper 70s to the lower 70s for the weekend, allowing for some relief from the oppressive heat. Heat index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of South Florida this weekend before rising higher into triple digits again as moisture increases early next week. High temperatures each day are projected in the low 90s for the weekend, with a gradual rise to the mid 90s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon with TEMPOs added for some east coast sites where rain chances are maximized. A few showers may linger into overnight period so keeping VCSH overnight with light/variable flow. Surface flow veers more northeasterly tomorrow afternoon with additional showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 79 90 / 60 70 30 40 West Kendall 77 90 75 90 / 60 70 30 40 Opa-Locka 79 90 78 90 / 60 70 20 30 Homestead 77 89 78 89 / 60 70 40 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 88 79 89 / 70 60 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 80 89 / 60 60 20 30 Pembroke Pines 80 92 79 92 / 60 60 20 30 West Palm Beach 79 89 78 90 / 50 40 10 20 Boca Raton 79 90 78 90 / 60 50 10 20 Naples 78 91 76 92 / 50 70 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Rizzuto