337
FXUS62 KMFL 151813
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface boundary is moving across South Florida today as
an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast.
Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from
north- northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range.
This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by
the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this
afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops
south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south
of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection
and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula.

High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon
ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 -
112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will
be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this
weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an
overall weak flow pattern. Thus, PoPs decrease into the 20-30% range
over most of the region for the weekend with convection expected to
be primarily isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will
amplify across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for
ascent which will occur simultaneously with some moisture
resurgence. As this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will gradually rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week.

Due to the drier air advecting into South Florida, dew points are
expected to fall from the upper 70s to the lower 70s for the
weekend, allowing for some relief from the oppressive heat. Heat
index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of
South Florida this weekend before rising higher into triple digits
again as moisture increases early next week. High temperatures each
day are projected in the low 90s for the weekend, with a gradual
rise to the mid 90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon with
TEMPOs added for some east coast sites where rain chances are
maximized. A few showers may linger into overnight period so
keeping VCSH overnight with light/variable flow. Surface flow
veers more northeasterly tomorrow afternoon with additional
showers and thunderstorms. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the
peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could
build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday
behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the
peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could
build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday
behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  79  90 /  60  70  30  40
West Kendall     77  90  75  90 /  60  70  30  40
Opa-Locka        79  90  78  90 /  60  70  20  30
Homestead        77  89  78  89 /  60  70  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  79  89 /  70  60  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  79  89  80  89 /  60  60  20  30
Pembroke Pines   80  92  79  92 /  60  60  20  30
West Palm Beach  79  89  78  90 /  50  40  10  20
Boca Raton       79  90  78  90 /  60  50  10  20
Naples           78  91  76  92 /  50  70  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Rizzuto