555
FXUS62 KMFL 070542
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
142 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Mid level ridging will continue to push over the Florida Peninsula
today as a surface area of high pressure centered in the western
Atlantic extends westward towards the area. The combination of these
two features will allow for rather light winds at the surface, and a
light steering flow aloft to start the day. This will allow the
surface wind flow to become sea breeze driven as the day
progresses and the sea breeze boundaries push inland. The sea
breeze boundaries will also be the main driver of convective
initiation today. Due to increasing subsidence as mid level
ridging strengthens over the area, this will provide some drier
air across the mid levels especially across the east coast earlier
in the day. The latest forecast model soundings show this as PWAT
values over the eastern half of the region start out between 1.5
and 1.7 inches during the morning hours before gradually rising
this afternoon. This pocket of drier air may help to delay the
start of convection today especially when compared to the past
several days. In any event, as the sea breezes push inland,
convection will gradually start to develop during the early
afternoon hours near the east coast metro areas before pushing
towards the interior and west as mid level ridging allows for the
steering flow to increase a bit out of the southeast. While strong
thunderstorm development will remain rather limited, it cannot be
completely ruled out with 500mb temperatures hovering around -7.5
to -8.5C and surface based cape generally ranging between
2500-3000 J/kg early this afternoon. When combined with DCAPE
values ranging between 850-1000 J/kg, this will be supportive of
isolated strong thunderstorm development with the strongest storms
containing gusty winds and frequent lightning. The best chance of
strong thunderstorms will remain over the interior and Lake
Okeechobee region where instability will be maximized this
afternoon along with where the sea breeze and other mesoscale
boundaries collide and interact with each other.

High temperatures this afternoon will generally range from around 90
along the east coast to the mid 90s over interior portions of
Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally rise between 100
and 105 this afternoon, however, it is possible that some interior
locations could see peak heat index values of 105-107 degrees before
convection gets going. The latest HREF, however, only shows
probabilities around 10 percent of this occurring, so these
values will be rather short lived which will negate any need for
heat advisories today.

Heading into Tuesday, the weather pattern does not change too much
as mid level ridging holds in place over the region as South Florida
remains on the western periphery of an area of high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic. The position of the surface
ridge axis will change a bit and shift northward which will allow
for the surface wind flow to increase slightly out the east. At
the same time, the latest guidance suite continues to show signs
of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, or TUTT slowly
approaching from the Bahamas. The latest guidance remains in good
agreement that this feature should remain to the east throughout
most of Tuesday as ridging holds strong. Convection will once
again be sea breeze driven and will develop along the sea breezes
as they push inland. With 500mb temperatures hovering generally
between -8 and -8.5C throughout most of the day combined with
rather poor lapse rates, strong thunderstorm development should
once again remain rather limited, however it cannot be entirely
ruled out. The best chances of strong thunderstorm development
will remain over the interior and Southwest Florida where
instability will be maximized and where the sea breezes and other
mesoscale boundaries collide. High temperatures on Tuesday will
generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the mid 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Heading into Wednesday and Thursday, the latest model guidance
remains in pretty good agreement with a rather weak Tropical Upper
Tropospheric Trough sneaking under the ridge and slowly pushing
across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, high
pressure remains firmly in place centered in the western Atlantic
and this surface ridge axis extends westward towards the region and
remains parked off just to the north. This will be supportive of
light east to southeasterly wind flow on Wednesday, and then a light
to moderate southeasterly wind flow on Thursday as high pressure
strengthens a bit and the pressure gradient across the region
slightly tightens.

While the daily diurnal convection pattern will remain in place on
both Wednesday and Thursday, the weak mid level disturbance could
provide some extra lift across the region during this time frame
which would slightly increase the potential of strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm development. As surface wind flow become more
southeasterly on Thursday, the latest guidance is also hinting at a
slug of moisture pushing over the area as some of the global and
ensemble guidance is suggesting PWAT values rise and range between
2.0 and 2.2 inches during this time frame. This would be suggestive
of increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as
well. The highest chances of convection each day will still focus
over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening
hours and this is where the best chances for strong thunderstorm
development will be as well. While the exact details still remain
uncertain and will depend highly on how much moisture advection
takes place combined with the strength of the mid level
disturbance, gusty winds and heavy downpours could be possible
with the strongest convection. High temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday will generally range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s
across most areas.

Towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the
forecast uncertainty rises as the latest guidance suite continues to
remain in some disagreement with how it handles the evolution of the
mid level disturbance nearby during this time frame. Some of the
guidance shows the disturbance generally washing out as mid level
ridging becomes reestablished across the region while other
solutions suggest the mid level disturbance hangs around longer not
allowing the ridge to fully build in. At the surface, the ridge axis
from the area of high pressure in the Atlantic will remain centered
off to the north which will allow for a general southeasterly wind
flow to remain in place through the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. While it does look like convective development
will be mainly driven by the sea breezes during this time frame, it
remains uncertain on the chances of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development based on the potential for the added extra
source of lift in the mid levels. Highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will still remain over the interior and Southwest
Florida each afternoon during the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend due to the southeasterly wind flow. High
temperatures will remain around climatological normals during this
time frame as they will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight into the morning
hours. Light and variable winds will increase out of the SE after
16z and will remain near 10 kts through the afternoon hours.
Scattered showers and storms will develop near the east coast
terminals early this afternoon before gradually pushing towards
the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. At KAPF, winds
will increase out of the WSW to around 10 kts this afternoon as a
Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A gentle southerly wind flow will remain in place across most of the
local waters today. The exception to this will be across the
Atlantic waters where these gentle winds will become southeasterly
as the day progresses. For Tuesday and Wednesday, a gentle east to
southeasterly wind flow will remain in place across the Atlantic
waters while winds may shift and become more variable across the
Gulf waters due to the effects of the Gulf breeze each afternoon.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 2 to 3 feet today,
however, they will gradually diminish and drop to 2 feet or less for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less through the middle of the week. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  90  78 /  50  20  30  20
West Kendall     91  75  90  75 /  50  20  30  20
Opa-Locka        92  78  92  78 /  50  20  30  20
Homestead        90  78  90  78 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  77  89  78 /  40  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  10
Pembroke Pines   94  80  93  80 /  50  20  30  20
West Palm Beach  91  77  90  77 /  50  30  30  10
Boca Raton       92  77  91  77 /  40  20  30  10
Naples           91  76  92  76 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC