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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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585 FXUS62 KMFL 160522 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 122 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 718 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Mesoanalysis this evening indicates the presence of a weak frontal boundary oriented across South Florida from northwest to southeast. Residual cold pools from earlier robust convection has acted to stabilize the atmosphere across South Florida with the exception of a few convective stragglers slowly raining themselves to oblivion. A wane/lull in convective activity will continue over the next several hours followed by a resurgence of activity in line with the diurnal maxima over the nearshore Atlantic waters. As a band of higher precipitable water (2.0 to 2.3 inches) content remains draped along this boundary combined with the instability foci over the warm Gulfstream waters, the mesoscale models hint at shower activity once again moving onshore across the east coast during the early morning hours. This activity aided by coastal convergence (light northeasterly flow over the water, light and variable flow over land) could result in bursts of heavy rainfall along the coast. With relative humidity remaining high due to the evaporation of today`s rainfall combined with a moist atmospheric profile, it will certainly be a muggy evening and overnight across South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface boundary is moving across South Florida today as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast. Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from north- northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula. High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 - 112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an overall weak flow pattern. Thus, PoPs decrease into the 20-30% range over most of the region for the weekend with convection expected to be primarily isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will amplify across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for ascent which will occur simultaneously with some moisture resurgence. As this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week. Due to the drier air advecting into South Florida, dew points are expected to fall from the upper 70s to the lower 70s for the weekend, allowing for some relief from the oppressive heat. Heat index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of South Florida this weekend before rising higher into triple digits again as moisture increases early next week. High temperatures each day are projected in the low 90s for the weekend, with a gradual rise to the mid 90s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 L/V winds this morning with isolated SHRA across the east coast of South Florida, which could bring periods of MVFR conditions and gusty winds to terminals if directly overhead. SHRA/TSRA activity becomes scattered to widespread this afternoon with light northeasterly surface prevailing across the region. TEMPOs and amendments may be needed as forecast confidence increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible through the period. In and around showers and && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 79 89 79 / 80 30 40 20 West Kendall 90 76 89 75 / 80 40 50 20 Opa-Locka 90 79 90 78 / 70 30 30 20 Homestead 89 78 88 78 / 80 50 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 70 30 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 89 80 89 79 / 70 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 92 79 / 70 30 30 10 West Palm Beach 89 79 90 77 / 50 10 20 10 Boca Raton 89 79 90 78 / 60 20 20 10 Naples 91 76 92 76 / 80 30 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Culver