585
FXUS62 KMFL 160522
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
122 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Mesoanalysis this evening indicates the presence of a weak
frontal boundary oriented across South Florida from northwest to
southeast. Residual cold pools from earlier robust convection has
acted to stabilize the atmosphere across South Florida with the
exception of a few convective stragglers slowly raining themselves
to oblivion. A wane/lull in convective activity will continue
over the next several hours followed by a resurgence of activity
in line with the diurnal maxima over the nearshore Atlantic
waters. As a band of higher precipitable water (2.0 to 2.3 inches)
content remains draped along this boundary combined with the
instability foci over the warm Gulfstream waters, the mesoscale
models hint at shower activity once again moving onshore across
the east coast during the early morning hours. This activity aided
by coastal convergence (light northeasterly flow over the water,
light and variable flow over land) could result in bursts of heavy
rainfall along the coast. With relative humidity remaining high
due to the evaporation of today`s rainfall combined with a moist
atmospheric profile, it will certainly be a muggy evening and
overnight across South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface boundary is moving across South Florida today as
an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast.
Moisture advection will increase as a result as winds shift from
north- northeast, with PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.3 inch range.
This, combined with ample modeled instability and lift provided by
the front will lead to higher chances for showers and storms this
afternoon, as well as greater storm coverage as the front drops
south (70-80% chance). This boundary may linger over or just south
of the region on Friday, promoting continued moisture advection
and enhanced chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the southernmost portions of the peninsula.

High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon
ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 -
112F range thanks to the increasing moisture. Little relief will
be felt overnight as low temperatures remain in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10 AM - 6PM today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A weak surface boundary will propagate through the area this
weekend, which will be accompanied by a drier air mass and an
overall weak flow pattern. Thus, PoPs decrease into the 20-30% range
over most of the region for the weekend with convection expected to
be primarily isolated. For next week, synoptic scale troughing will
amplify across the Eastern Seaboard, providing extra forcing for
ascent which will occur simultaneously with some moisture
resurgence. As this occurs, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will gradually rise back up to 40-60% by the middle of next week.

Due to the drier air advecting into South Florida, dew points are
expected to fall from the upper 70s to the lower 70s for the
weekend, allowing for some relief from the oppressive heat. Heat
index values are expected to fall below 100 degrees for most of
South Florida this weekend before rising higher into triple digits
again as moisture increases early next week. High temperatures each
day are projected in the low 90s for the weekend, with a gradual
rise to the mid 90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

L/V winds this morning with isolated SHRA across the east coast
of South Florida, which could bring periods of MVFR conditions and gusty
winds to terminals if directly overhead. SHRA/TSRA activity
becomes scattered to widespread this afternoon with light
northeasterly surface prevailing across the region. TEMPOs and
amendments may be needed as forecast confidence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Winds will shift out of the north-northeast across the local
Atlantic waters, and out of the north-northwest across the Gulf
waters as a weak surface boundary pushes south across the
peninsula today. Seas will remain below 2 ft on today, but could
build into the 3-5 ft range across the Atlantic waters on Friday
behind the frontal passage. Isolated-scattered storms will be
possible through the period. In and around showers and

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  89  79 /  80  30  40  20
West Kendall     90  76  89  75 /  80  40  50  20
Opa-Locka        90  79  90  78 /  70  30  30  20
Homestead        89  78  88  78 /  80  50  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  88  79  88  78 /  70  30  30  10
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  79 /  70  20  20  10
Pembroke Pines   91  79  92  79 /  70  30  30  10
West Palm Beach  89  79  90  77 /  50  10  20  10
Boca Raton       89  79  90  78 /  60  20  20  10
Naples           91  76  92  76 /  80  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver