864
FXUS62 KMFL 191705
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A fairly consistent and typical summertime pattern continues
across South FL through Saturday with vertically stacked high
pressure over the western Atlantic in control, and a stationary
boundary over the Southeast US up into the Mid Atlantic region.
Low to mid level E/SE flow will continue to pump moist air into
the area, with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches expected. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries
this afternoon, becoming scattered to widespread through the
early evening hours. The highest coverage will generally be over
the inland and Gulf Coast areas. With strong instability MUCAPE
over 3000 J/kg) and minimal shear, storms will be pulse-y in
nature, and a few may become strong to near severe with strong
winds being the primary threat. Convection will decrease in the
overnight hours, but isolated activity will be possible over the
waters and immediate east coast. The overall convective setup and
pattern looks to be fairly similar on Saturday, however the
leading edge of a plume of Saharan Dust will also be moving over
the area. This may slightly reduce the overall coverage of storms
Saturday afternoon and evening, but provide a bit better of a
setup for storms to become strong to severe.

High temps today and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s which
combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will lead to
continued heat indices reaching hazardous levels during the day.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida until 6 PM
today for max heat indices of 105-110, and this may be needed
again on Saturday. Low temps tonight will range from the middle
70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The subtropical ridge will maintain its strength for the end of the
weekend and likely next week. In return, light to moderate east to
southeasterly low level flow will continue to be ongoing and
prevail through the long term period. Rain chances will continue
to be more favored towards SW Florida along the Gulf coast and
western interior sections under this regime and will have the
better chances for heavier rain. Concurrently, the incoming
Saharan dust plume (SAL) will linger into next week and provide
some drier air, particularly aloft, which can suppress convection.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms are still expected
each day but there will little to no severe potential due to the
dust factor.

Moving into next week, there is expected to be a TUTT low (tropical
upper tropospheric trough) forming in the western Atlantic, which
may advect westward towards the Bahamas/Cuba with energy advecting
into South Florida as well. Long term model guidance is fairly
consistent with the direction of the TUTT but differ on the timing
(ECMWF ensembles have a later arrival time than the GFS in
particular with a Thursday/Friday arrival rather than
Wednesday/Thursday). Overall, the TUTT will provide extra forcing
for ascent with increased cyclonic vorticity advection, which
combined with extra moisture advection (PWATs likely increase over 2
inches) will create the potential for increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms. Potential impacts from this are still uncertain
even as there is fair agreement in long range guidance, so this will
be something to monitor over the next few days as we enter next
week. PoPs remain forecast primarily in the chance to likely
categories (i.e. 50-70% primarily) for the forecast period each day.
Flow may veer further southerly at times, but will still
predominantly stay in an east-to-southeast regime, which favors the
west coast in observing more rain showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures are expected to continue reaching the low to mid 90s
range for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Therefore, Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible
each day. The only exception to this would be a day that sees
widespread rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually increase across the
area this afternoon, with periods of MVFR or IFR possible at any
terminals that are impacted. E/SE winds around 10-15 kts through the
evening except at KAPF with the westerly gulf breeze. Light
southeast winds overnight return to around 10-15kts after 15Z
Saturday. Convective activity will decrease late this evening,
before gradually ramping up again Saturday morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

East to southeast winds will continue over South Florida waters
through this weekend and into next week due to the high pressure
over the Western Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. Wind
speeds will generally be gentle to moderate each day. Seas of 1-3
ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week which may
result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Increasing east to southeast flow this weekend will result in an
elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  92  82  92 /  10  40  10  60
West Kendall     80  93  80  92 /  20  40  10  60
Opa-Locka        82  93  82  93 /  10  40  10  60
Homestead        81  92  81  91 /  10  40  10  60
Fort Lauderdale  82  90  82  91 /  10  40  10  60
N Ft Lauderdale  82  92  82  91 /  10  40  10  60
Pembroke Pines   82  95  82  94 /  10  40  10  60
West Palm Beach  81  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  50
Boca Raton       81  92  81  91 /  10  40  10  50
Naples           77  92  77  94 /  20  60  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver