006
FXUS62 KMFL 191912
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A fairly consistent and typical summertime pattern continues
across South FL through Saturday with vertically stacked high
pressure over the western Atlantic in control, and a stationary
boundary over the Southeast US up into the Mid Atlantic region.
Low to mid level E/SE flow will continue to pump moist air into
the area, with PWAT values of 1.8-2 inches expected. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along sea breeze and outflow boundaries
this afternoon, becoming scattered to widespread through the
early evening hours. The highest coverage will generally be over
the inland and Gulf Coast areas. With strong instability MUCAPE
over 3000 J/kg) and minimal shear, storms will be pulse-y in
nature, and a few may become strong to near severe with strong
winds being the primary threat. Convection will decrease in the
overnight hours, but isolated activity will be possible over the
waters and immediate east coast. The overall convective setup and
pattern looks to be fairly similar on Saturday, however the
leading edge of a plume of Saharan Dust will also be moving over
the area. This may slightly reduce the overall coverage of storms
Saturday afternoon and evening, but provide a bit better of a
setup for storms to become strong to severe.

High temps today and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s which
combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will lead to
continued heat indices reaching hazardous levels during the day.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida until 6 PM
today for max heat indices of 105-110, and this may be needed
again on Saturday. Low temps tonight will range from the middle
70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mid level ridging as well as high pressure at the surface centered
in the western Atlantic will continue to dominate the weather
pattern across South Florida for the second half of the weekend.
At the same time, a plume of Saharan dust will continue to remain
over South Florida which could continue to bring some drier air
into the mid levels. Even though this will help to reduce
convection coverage during this time frame, there will be enough
lower level moisture in place to support shower and thunderstorm
development along the sea breezes. With the east to southeasterly
wind flow in place, the highest chances of storms will be focused
across the interior and west coast. High temperatures on Sunday
will range from the lower to mid 90s across most areas.

Heading into Monday, the latest ensemble guidance is in pretty
good agreement with having a deep tropical moisture surge advect
into the region as PWAT values could range between 2.2 and 2.4
inches during this time frame. This will help to enhance shower
and thunderstorm activity especially on Sunday night into Monday
as this pushes through. With lack of mid to upper level support,
strong thunderstorm development chances will remain low and the
main concern will be the potential for heavy downpours and
localized flooding. With an increase in cloud cover as well as
higher chances of showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures
will be held down a little bit as they rise into the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most areas on Monday.

Another noteworthy feature in the weather pattern will be the
potential for a TUTT, (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough),
currently located northeast of the Bahamas to gradually approach
the region as the week progresses. The latest ensemble guidance
still remains in disagreement in regards to the timing of this
feature pushing towards the region which raises the uncertainty
level for the forecast towards the middle and the end of the week.
In any event, this could provide extra mid to upper level support
for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms for the middle
to latter portion of the upcoming week. While the exact details
still remain highly uncertain, strong thunderstorm development
will remain possible with gusty winds and heavy downpours along
with the potential of localized flooding as this TUTT approaches
and moves through the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of
the forecast models and increases the chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the middle to end of the week. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s each
day through middle to end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually increase across the
area this afternoon, with periods of MVFR or IFR possible at any
terminals that are impacted. E/SE winds around 10-15 kts through the
evening except at KAPF with the westerly gulf breeze. Light
southeast winds overnight return to around 10-15kts after 15Z
Saturday. Convective activity will decrease late this evening,
before gradually ramping up again Saturday morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

East to southeast winds will continue over South Florida waters
through this weekend and into next week due to the high pressure
over the Western Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. Wind
speeds will generally be gentle to moderate each day. Seas of 1-3
ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week which may
result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Increasing east to southeast flow this weekend will result in an
elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  92  82  92 /  10  40  10  50
West Kendall     80  93  80  92 /  20  40  10  50
Opa-Locka        82  93  82  93 /  10  40  10  50
Homestead        81  92  81  91 /  10  40  10  50
Fort Lauderdale  82  90  82  91 /  10  40  10  50
N Ft Lauderdale  82  92  82  91 /  10  40  10  50
Pembroke Pines   82  95  82  94 /  10  40  10  50
West Palm Beach  81  92  80  92 /  10  40  10  50
Boca Raton       81  92  81  92 /  10  40  10  50
Naples           77  92  77  94 /  20  60  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Culver