325
FXUS62 KMFL 150505
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
105 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

South Florida is under the influence of a surface ridge of high
pressure emanating from the Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture may be
replaced by a Saharan air layer entering from the east. The easterly
to southeasterly flow will be maintained through Tuesday with the
Atlantic sea breeze favored and the Gulf sea breeze pinned. Thus,
the convective focus will be inland and over Southwest Florida
during the afternoon and evening hours. The SAL may act to limit
some coverage over eastern portions of South Florida but activity
over Southwest Florida should still be able flourish.

Temperatures this afternoon and evening will continue to be
stifling. Heat Advisory remains in place through 6 PM and overnight
temperatures along the east coast metro areas may not fall below 80.
Widespread lower to mid 90s return on Monday with heat index values
in the triple digits that may necessitate another Heat Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The area will remain positioned along the western periphery of
the broad subtropical ridge through most of the upcoming week.
Light to moderate easterly low-lvl flow will prevail through most
of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more
southeasterly at times late this week. Guidance continues to
shift the moisture envelope associated with the early-week
tropical wave southward and thus trimmed PoPs and QPF for
Tuesday. Drier air filtering in from the east behind the wave
Tuesday combined with the overall easterly regime should focus the
best rain chances over SW Florida. The drier airmass (PWATS
generally 1.6-1.8 inches) will largely remain in place for
Wednesday so maintained PoPs a bit below climo (i.e. 25-45% with
the best chances over the west coast). Rain chances will trend
closer towards easterly regime climo (i.e. 50-70%) late this week
as a weakening TUTT approaches the area and PWATs increase back
to near climo (albeit interspersed with occasional drier periods
due to minor SAL intrusions).

Given the influence of the ridge and the somewhat suppressed rain
chances (at least through the first half of the period)
seasonably hot temperatures look likely with highs in the low to
mid 90s and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Although triple
digit heat indices will be a certainty given those temperatures,
there may be just enough mixing of drier air aloft to keep us
below advisory criteria early in the period, with advisory
conditions potentially returning by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Light SE winds will not change much through the rest of the
TAF period, reaching the 10-12kt range after 15Z. VCSH could
result in brief sub-VFR periods over the ATL terminals, but
showers and thunderstorms should favor APF this afternoon. Winds
should also shift to the WSW after 17Z with Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through early portions of the
week as high pressure remains situated in the western Atlantic. Seas
and wind speeds will remain well below concerning levels with
overall benign boating conditions continuing. The only exception
will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief
periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Easterly to southeasterly flow will allow for a moderate rip current
risk to persist along some of the Atlantic beaches to start the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  80  92 /  30  40  10  30
West Kendall     78  92  77  92 /  30  50  10  40
Opa-Locka        80  93  79  92 /  30  40  10  30
Homestead        80  90  79  91 /  30  40  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  30  30  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  93  79  93 /  20  40  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  20
Boca Raton       79  91  79  91 /  20  30  10  30
Naples           78  93  77  93 /  30  70  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...17