347
FXUS62 KMFL 201120
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A typical easterly to southeasterly regime is expected to continue
through the weekend as high pressure persists across the western
Atlantic. PWAT values will remain in the 1.8 to 2 inch range as the
southeasterly flow maintains moisture throughout the lower to middle
atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along sea breeze
and outflow boundaries this afternoon, becoming scattered through the
early evening hours. The highest coverage will generally be over the
inland and Gulf Coast areas. The majority of thunderstorms are expected
to be typical summertime pulse storms, although a strong storm cannot be
completely ruled out. Primary threats with and stronger cell would be
strong winds and torrential downpours. A plume of Saharan dust is
progged to overspread the area beginning this afternoon and will
linger through the weekend which may act to suppress thunderstorm coverage.

High temps will be in the low to mid 90s which combined with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s, will lead to continued heat indices reaching
hazardous levels during the day.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of South Florida until 6 PM Sunday
for max heat indices of 105-110 degrees. Low temps tonight will range
from the middle 70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the
coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

High pressure is expected to prevail through the end of the weekend
heading into early next week. The aforementioned plume of Saharan dust
will washout over the area and continue to head northward as deep tropical
 moisture advects across the region through the day on Monday with PWATs
spiking up to the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range. This will help to enhance shower
and thunderstorm activity especially on Sunday night into Monday morning
as this pushes through. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong
thunderstorm development chances will remain low and the main concern
will be the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. With
easterly to southeasterly flow expected to continue through the majority
of the long term period, greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage can be
expected over interior and southwest portions of the area.

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will slowly approach South
Florida through the period. At this time, this feature remains northeast
of the Bahamas and a fair amount of disagreement remains regarding the
timing of it. This feature could provide extra synoptic support for
showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the upcoming week. While
the exact details still remain uncertain, strong thunderstorm development
will remain possible with gusty winds and heavy downpours along with the
potential of localized flooding as this TUTT approaches and moves through
the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and
increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to end
of the week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s each day
through middle to end of the week.

Temperatures through the long term will remain quite warm with highs in
the lower to middle 90s. Heat indices will reach the 100-110 degree range
each afternoon and Heat Advisories are highly likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail until around 14-15Z, then
periods of MVFR/IFR are possible with showers and thunderstorms.
VFR should again prevail after 00Z during the nighttime hours.
Light easterly flow will shift to the ESE and increase to around
10-12kt after 15Z. Only exception will be APF where Gulf breezes
will bring westerly flow after 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

East to southeast winds will continue over South Florida waters through
this weekend and into next week due to the high pressure over the Western
Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. Wind speeds will generally be
gentle to moderate each day. Seas of 1-3 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or
less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through
the next week which may result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Increasing east to southeast flow this weekend will result in an
elevated rip current risk for the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  82  92  81 /  40  10  70  60
West Kendall     93  80  92  78 /  50  10  70  50
Opa-Locka        94  82  93  80 /  40  10  70  50
Homestead        92  81  90  80 /  40  10  70  60
Fort Lauderdale  91  82  90  80 /  40  10  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  92  82  91  81 /  40  10  70  50
Pembroke Pines   95  82  94  81 /  40  10  70  50
West Palm Beach  92  80  92  80 /  50  10  60  30
Boca Raton       92  81  91  80 /  50  10  60  50
Naples           93  77  94  78 /  70  20  70  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17