025
FXUS62 KMFL 152320
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge will continue to remain in place
across the region through the rest of today and into Tuesday. At the
surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
will bring east to southeasterly wind flow as a tropical wave pushes
south of the region through the rest of today. At the same time, a
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continue to slowly push towards the
region as today progresses. While the northern portion of the
tropical wave has helped to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
over the Atlantic waters earlier this morning, the convection
chances will gradually shift towards the interior and west coast
this afternoon as the sea breezes develop and push inland. With a
lack of mid to upper level support, the chances for strong
thunderstorm development will remain rather limited. However, one or
two strong storms cannot be ruled out later this afternoon mainly
over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea breezes
and previous thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminsh over land as
the evening progresses. Warm temperatures will remain in place
overnight as lows drop into the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee
region and into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas.

On Tuesday, as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues pushes over the
region, it will introduce a drier air mass across the mid levels
throughout the day. The latest guidance shows PWAT values of 1.3 to
1.5 inches over the eastern half of the region, and 1.5 to 1.7
inches over Southwest Florida. This drier air mass will reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Convection
development will still be sea breeze driven and with the general
synoptic easterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of showers
and storms will remain over the interior and west coast in the
afternoon. While strong thunderstorm development will remain very
limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over interior
portions of Southwest Florida where sea breeze boundaries collide.
The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours.
With reduced shower and thunderstorm coverage, high temperatures
will soar into the lower to mid 90s across most areas. Heat index
values will generally range from 105 to 110 across most areas with
the highest values being found over Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The surface subtropical ridge of high pressure will continue to
hold its influence over South Florida through a good portion of
the week. This will allow for an easterly to southeasterly low
level wind flow to persist. Morning Atlantic showers and storms
will evolve as the sea breeze develops into inland and Gulf coast
storms. Some drier air Tuesday into Wednesday could limit
convection compared to previous days but tropical moisture
rebounds late week as a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT)
approaches. With this, rain and storm chances again rebound for
the late week and weekend periods.

Temperatures will continue to be hot with widespread 90s for
afternoon highs and overnight lows that may not fall below 80 for
days across the east coast urban heat island. This present a
concern for heat illness and may necessitate several days of Heat
Advisories through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Winds will gradually become light and variable as the evening
progresses. Easterly flow returns by late morning, with likely sea
breeze development at APF. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
for APF tomorrow afternoon, with mainly dry conditions expected
around eastern sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will keep a gentle to
moderate east southeasterly wind flow in place through the middle of
the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less during this time frame. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day.
Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and
storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

With a moderate onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of
rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     78  92  77  93 /  30  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        81  93  80  93 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        80  90  80  91 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  90 /  10  20  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  94  80  94 /  20  20  10  30
West Palm Beach  80  91  79  92 /  10  20  10  20
Boca Raton       80  91  79  92 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           78  92  77  93 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Rizzuto