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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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562 FXUS62 KMFL 160505 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 105 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A rather strong mid level ridge will continue to remain in place across the region through the rest of today and into Tuesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will bring east to southeasterly wind flow as a tropical wave pushes south of the region through the rest of today. At the same time, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continue to slowly push towards the region as today progresses. While the northern portion of the tropical wave has helped to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Atlantic waters earlier this morning, the convection chances will gradually shift towards the interior and west coast this afternoon as the sea breezes develop and push inland. With a lack of mid to upper level support, the chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather limited. However, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out later this afternoon mainly over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea breezes and previous thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminsh over land as the evening progresses. Warm temperatures will remain in place overnight as lows drop into the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region and into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. On Tuesday, as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues pushes over the region, it will introduce a drier air mass across the mid levels throughout the day. The latest guidance shows PWAT values of 1.3 to 1.5 inches over the eastern half of the region, and 1.5 to 1.7 inches over Southwest Florida. This drier air mass will reduce the coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Convection development will still be sea breeze driven and with the general synoptic easterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of showers and storms will remain over the interior and west coast in the afternoon. While strong thunderstorm development will remain very limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over interior portions of Southwest Florida where sea breeze boundaries collide. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. With reduced shower and thunderstorm coverage, high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s across most areas. Heat index values will generally range from 105 to 110 across most areas with the highest values being found over Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The surface subtropical ridge of high pressure will continue to hold its influence over South Florida through a good portion of the week. This will allow for an easterly to southeasterly low level wind flow to persist. Morning Atlantic showers and storms will evolve as the sea breeze develops into inland and Gulf coast storms. Some drier air Tuesday into Wednesday could limit convection compared to previous days but tropical moisture rebounds late week as a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaches. With this, rain and storm chances again rebound for the late week and weekend periods. Temperatures will continue to be hot with widespread 90s for afternoon highs and overnight lows that may not fall below 80 for days across the east coast urban heat island. This present a concern for heat illness and may necessitate several days of Heat Advisories through the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 SCT MVFR ceilings throughout the 06Z TAF period. VCSH for all the east coast terminals today, with VCTS at APF after 18Z. Light SE winds becoming 10-15 kts late morning through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will keep a gentle to moderate east southeasterly wind flow in place through the middle of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 With a moderate onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 81 93 81 / 20 10 40 20 West Kendall 92 77 93 78 / 30 10 40 20 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 40 20 Homestead 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 20 10 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 91 81 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 94 81 / 20 10 40 20 West Palm Beach 91 79 92 79 / 20 10 30 10 Boca Raton 91 79 92 80 / 20 10 40 20 Naples 92 77 93 79 / 70 40 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...CMF