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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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775 FXUS62 KMFL 161131 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Strong ridging in the mid-to-upper levels and surface high pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate the weather pattern for the mid-week period. Winds will continue at a light breeze out of an east to southeast direction. With high pressure continuing to be the main influencer on the weather, any rain chances will be a result of diurnal heating and mesoscale features such as the sea and gulf breezes. The highest chances will again be towards the interior and west coast areas given the predominantly easterly low level flow. However, the amount of showers and storms for both Tuesday and Wednesday will trend lower as a light intrusion of Saharan dust allows for some drier air to mix in as PWATs drop to 1.2-1.4 over most of the South Florida region on Tuesday. The brunt of the dust plume will stay south of the Florida Peninsula, but enough will advect in to create a drier atmosphere. The weaker flow under the ridge may keep the drier from filtering into western portions of the CWA until late day Tuesday, which further leads to much higher PoPs in those areas compared to the east coast metro areas. Tropical moisture will start to rebound on Wednesday, but conditions will still be dominated by high pressure and the drier air will linger especially in the mid-levels. Therefore, while there will be chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Wednesday it is not expected to be widespread. Temperatures will continue to hit the low to mid 90s through this mid-week period and heat indices will continue to hit triple digits. There will not be a widespread heat advisory issued today because of the drier air intrusion leading to dew points a few degrees lower than they have been the last several days. Nevertheless, a heat advisory is still in effect today for Collier county as the easterly regime leads to warmer conditions in the western half of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 South Florida will remain positioned along the western periphery of the broad subtropical ridge through the rest of this week and likely for the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate east to southeasterly low level flow will prevail through most of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more southeasterly at times late this week. Rain chances will rebound closer to climatological norms late this week as a weakening TUTT approaches the area and PWATs increase back to near normal. With the east to southeast flow continuing, it is expected that the west coast will see more showers and thunderstorms compared to the eastern half of the CWA. That said, the PoPs range disparity will be much smaller with basically 60-70% PoPs everywhere. Temperatures look likely in the low to mid 90s for highs and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period. Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day but have a higher chance for occurrence late in the week and over the weekend as moisture levels increase back to near normal for this time of year and temperatures remain hot. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will increase out of the ESE later this morning to around 10 to 15 kts. At KAPF, winds will become SW early in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers will continue over the east coast this morning. Showers and storms will then shift and develop over the interior and west coast this afternoon into the early evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain in place through the mid-week period, thus maintaining the current east to southeast flow. Overall, benign conditions are expected with generally light winds and seas of 2 feet or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 81 92 81 / 20 20 40 30 West Kendall 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 50 30 Opa-Locka 93 80 93 81 / 20 20 40 30 Homestead 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 20 20 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 81 91 81 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 94 81 94 81 / 20 10 40 30 West Palm Beach 91 79 92 79 / 10 10 30 10 Boca Raton 91 80 92 80 / 20 10 30 20 Naples 92 77 93 79 / 60 20 50 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-070. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CWC