143
FXUS62 KMFL 201723
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
123 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region
with a long sfc frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE
CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atl. The
resulting E/SE winds continue over SoFlo during the next couple of
days, with ongoing moisture advection from the West Atlantic and
the Caribbean.

Latest model and MFL sounding data show max PWATs remaining near
2 inches each day, and supporting scattered to numerous showers
each day. A few thunderstorms are also expected with an isolated
strong to severe cell possible. But overall coverage may decrease
a little as another round of Saharan dust makes it all the way
into the peninsula through early next week. Sea breeze boundaries
should again become focal points for the deeper convection, with
gusty winds, downpours and lightning strikes becoming the main
hazards from the stronger cells. Highest chances for showers and
storms will remain over inland and Gulf Coast areas.

Temperatures remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low
to mid 90s each afternoon, along with heat indices in triple
digits during the day. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all
of SoFlo until 6 PM Sunday for max heat indices up to 110
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

High pressure is expected to prevail through the end of the weekend
heading into early next week. The aforementioned plume of Saharan dust
will washout over the area and continue to head northward as deep tropical
 moisture advects across the region through the day on Monday with PWATs
spiking up to the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range. This will help to enhance shower
and thunderstorm activity especially on Sunday night into Monday morning
as this pushes through. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong
thunderstorm development chances will remain low and the main concern
will be the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. With
easterly to southeasterly flow expected to continue through the majority
of the long term period, greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage can be
expected over interior and southwest portions of the area.

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will slowly approach South
Florida through the period. At this time, this feature remains northeast
of the Bahamas and a fair amount of disagreement remains regarding the
timing of it. This feature could provide extra synoptic support for
showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the upcoming week. While
the exact details still remain uncertain, strong thunderstorm development
will remain possible with gusty winds and heavy downpours along with the
potential of localized flooding as this TUTT approaches and moves through
the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and
increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to end
of the week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.
High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s each day
through middle to end of the week.

Temperatures through the long term will remain quite warm with highs in
the lower to middle 90s. Heat indices will reach the 100-110 degree range
each afternoon and Heat Advisories are highly likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Although VFR conditions should prevail for the rest of this
afternoon, some periods of MVFR/IFR are still possible with
showers and thunderstorms. VFR should again prevail after 00Z
during the nighttime hours. Expect mainly ESE around 10-12kt
through 00Z, then subsiding to around 8kt tonight. APF may
experience westerly flow through 22-00Z as Gulf breezes push
inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Persisting high pressure over the west Atlantic will keep winds
generally from the E/SE around 10-12kt through early next week.
Mainly good boating conditions will prevail across the coastal
waters with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Only exception will be
around any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief
periods of rough seas and strong winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Persisting east to southeast flow will keep an elevated rip
current risk along the Atlantic beaches through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  92  81  92 /  10  70  60  70
West Kendall     80  92  78  92 /  10  70  50  70
Opa-Locka        82  93  80  92 /  10  70  50  70
Homestead        81  90  80  90 /  10  70  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  82  90  80  90 /  10  70  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  82  91  81  90 /  10  70  50  70
Pembroke Pines   82  94  81  94 /  10  70  50  70
West Palm Beach  80  92  80  91 /  10  60  30  70
Boca Raton       81  91  80  91 /  10  60  50  70
Naples           77  94  78  91 /  20  70  50  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17