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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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925 FXUS62 KMFL 162334 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 734 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Some convection remains along the State Road 29 corridor in Southwest Florida this evening but most other convection has diminished with this trend expected to continue through the evening. A Saharan air layer could enter the region tonight into Wednesday which could help supress the coverage of convection over the next 24 hours or so. No major updates tonight besides tweaks to the hourly temperature, dewpoint, and PoP grids to account for the latest observed trends. Have a wonderful Tuesday! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Strong mid level ridging continues across the region this afternoon while an area of high pressure at the surface keeps an east to southeasterly wind flow in place. At the same time, a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is also pushing into South Florida from the east this afternoon. This is helping to promote drier air in the mid levels mainly across the eastern half of the region. The latest forecast model soundings show PWAT values falling to 1.1 to 1.4 inches over the eastern half of South Florida as the afternoon progresses. This drier air mass will slowly move towards Southwest Florida, however, it will take a little bit longer to arrive. Because of this, PWAT values will remain around 1.8 to 2.1 inches through most of the afternoon. This will for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop along the sea breezes over the interior and west coast this afternoon. While chances for strong thunderstorm development remain low, one or two cannot be ruled out mainly over interior sections of Southwest Florida. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. Shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish this evening over land due to loss of diurnal heating as well as drier air in the mid levels spreading westward. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. Heading into Wednesday, the drier air mass over the mid levels will slowly filter out of the region as the day progresses and deeper layer moisture advection resumes. With mid level ridging still remaining in place combined with high pressure centered in the western Atlantic at the surface, the general east to southeast synoptic wind flow will continue across the region. Convection development will remain sea breeze driven and will favor the interior and west coast once again during the afternoon and early evening hours. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm chances will remain low, however, one or two cannot be ruled out mainly over interior sections of Southwest Florida where sea breezes collide and interact with each other. High temperatures on Wednesday will rise to around 90 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 90s over Southwest Florida. As additional moisture filters back into the region, heat index values will increase and will generally range from 105 to 108 across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Forecast models continue to indicate a typical summertime synoptic pattern, characterized by high pressure situated over the western Atlantic, generating an east-to-southeast flow across South Florida. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are expected to range from 1.5 to 2 inches throughout most of the forecast period, slightly below to around average for this time of year. A broad ridge dominates at the 500mb level, with 500mb temperatures hovering around -6 degreesC, with slight variations of 0.5 degrees C. Consequently, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day. Most convective activity will be influenced by mesoscale processes, making it challenging to precisely forecast specific locations for isolated stronger thunderstorms beyond general areas. Given the prevailing E-SE flow, the interior and southwestern coast of South Florida have the elevated rain probabilities. Convection will primarily be diurnally driven, with most activity occurring during the afternoon and evening, while the overnight hours will see most activity over the coastal waters. This pattern will also result in seasonable to above- average temperatures, with daytime highs reaching the upper 80s along the immediate coasts to the lower 90s inland. Nighttime lows will range from the mid-70s in the interior to the lower 80s along the coastlines. Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, forecast models consistently depict a shift in the large-scale weather pattern as the ridging weakens, allowing an influx of tropical moisture in the form of a TUTT to advect into the area. While the potential for increased precipitation exists, current PoPs will not be significantly adjusted upwards, as the event is still 5-6 days out and subject to further model refinement. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Remnant convection remains around SWFL including APF. Convection should trend down for the evening and overnight before Atlantic showers return in the morning. Focus should shift over the east coast terminals from 10-12z to 18-21z and short-fused AMDs due to sub-VFR impacts from TS cannot be ruled out. Afternoon TSRA focus will move inland and then again towards APF/Gulf Coast. Wind should remain easterly though sea breeze at APF will turn flow W/SW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to bring gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow to most of the local waters through the rest of the week. Seas will generally remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the local waters each day. This could result in locally higher winds and seas in and around storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 92 81 92 / 10 40 20 50 West Kendall 78 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 60 Opa-Locka 80 93 81 93 / 10 40 10 50 Homestead 80 91 80 91 / 10 40 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 81 90 81 91 / 10 40 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 81 92 / 10 40 10 50 Pembroke Pines 81 94 81 95 / 10 40 10 50 West Palm Beach 79 91 80 92 / 10 30 10 60 Boca Raton 80 91 80 92 / 10 30 10 50 Naples 76 93 79 92 / 30 40 20 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....Pine AVIATION...RAG/JFR