779
FXUS62 KMFL 180551
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control
through the end of the work week. This will result in a continued
E/SE flow across South FL and the precip pattern will remain
consistent with that set up. Highest PoPs during the afternoon and
early evening hours will be confined to the interior and SW FL, and
overnight PoPs will be maximized over the Atlantic waters and along
the east coast. Forecast soundings and HREF guidance shows PWAT
values ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches which will result in highly
efficient rainfall rates. That, along with slow storm motions, may
result in an isolated flooding risk for urban and poor drainage
locations. Much like the past few days, a few strong storms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily
over the interior and SW FL.

High temps this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s. These temps
combined with elevated dew points in the middle to upper 70s, will
result in peak heat indices of 100-108 degrees. Early afternoon
convection will likely keep Palm Beach and SW FL counties from
reaching criteria for at least a couple hours. With lower PoPs and
lower advisory criteria in Miami-Dade and Broward, confidence is
higher for these locations reaching criteria, so a heat advisory was
issued from 10 AM this morning until 6 PM this evening.

Low temps tonight will remain mild, only dropping down to the middle
70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts. High temps on
Friday will again be in the low to middle 90s, which will likely
result in another day of heat advisories over a portion of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

As we wrap up the week and move into the weekend, South Florida will
continue to remain positioned along the western periphery of the
broad subtropical ridge residing in the Atlantic. Light to moderate
east to southeasterly low level flow will continue to prevail
through most of the extended period, with the mean flow veering more
southeasterly at times. With this ongoing E/SE pattern, rain chances
will continue to favor the interior and Gulf portions of the CWA as
the Atlantic sea breeze will advance further inland each day and the
Gulf breeze will not be able to penetrate as far. The penetration of
another Saharan Dust plume will play a role in available moisture,
as it advects into the region. This will likely to create drier
conditions this weekend, particularly aloft, and may limit shower
and storm growth potential, as well as how widespread precipitation
can become.

Moving into early next week, early model guidance is indicating the
potential for an advancing TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough)
to arrive in the region. The TUTT would provide forcing and extra
tropical moisture would fuel an increase in activity for South FL as
a whole. Extended forecasts are showing a significant rise in
precipitable water, following the drier conditions the SAL brought
in the days prior. However, there is still uncertainty for the end
of the forecast period, and with a significant factor playing a
large role in the extended forecast, changes are likely for early
next week.

High temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid 90s in
the days ahead, with lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat
Advisory conditions will continue to be possible each day given
the significant moisture, thus leading to high dew points and
above normal high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Light southeasterly winds this morning will increase to 10-15 kts
from late morning through the early evening, with an afternoon
westerly gulf breeze at APF. SCT MVFR ceilings are expected
throughout the period. SCT showers and thunderstorms expected late
morning through early evening, and may result in brief flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow
will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of
the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains
in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less
through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher
in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  93  82 /  50  20  50  30
West Kendall     92  79  93  79 /  50  10  50  30
Opa-Locka        93  81  93  82 /  50  20  50  30
Homestead        91  80  91  81 /  50  10  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  50  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  92  81  92  82 /  50  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   95  81  95  82 /  50  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  92  80  93  80 /  40  10  50  20
Boca Raton       92  81  93  81 /  40  20  50  30
Naples           91  79  93  79 /  50  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CMF