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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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143 FXUS62 KMFL 201723 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 123 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region with a long sfc frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atl. The resulting E/SE winds continue over SoFlo during the next couple of days, with ongoing moisture advection from the West Atlantic and the Caribbean. Latest model and MFL sounding data show max PWATs remaining near 2 inches each day, and supporting scattered to numerous showers each day. A few thunderstorms are also expected with an isolated strong to severe cell possible. But overall coverage may decrease a little as another round of Saharan dust makes it all the way into the peninsula through early next week. Sea breeze boundaries should again become focal points for the deeper convection, with gusty winds, downpours and lightning strikes becoming the main hazards from the stronger cells. Highest chances for showers and storms will remain over inland and Gulf Coast areas. Temperatures remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, along with heat indices in triple digits during the day. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of SoFlo until 6 PM Sunday for max heat indices up to 110 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure is expected to prevail through the end of the weekend heading into early next week. The aforementioned plume of Saharan dust will washout over the area and continue to head northward as deep tropical moisture advects across the region through the day on Monday with PWATs spiking up to the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range. This will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity especially on Sunday night into Monday morning as this pushes through. With lack of mid to upper level support, strong thunderstorm development chances will remain low and the main concern will be the potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. With easterly to southeasterly flow expected to continue through the majority of the long term period, greatest shower and thunderstorm coverage can be expected over interior and southwest portions of the area. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will slowly approach South Florida through the period. At this time, this feature remains northeast of the Bahamas and a fair amount of disagreement remains regarding the timing of it. This feature could provide extra synoptic support for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the upcoming week. While the exact details still remain uncertain, strong thunderstorm development will remain possible with gusty winds and heavy downpours along with the potential of localized flooding as this TUTT approaches and moves through the region. The latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to end of the week. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures will generally remain in the lower to mid 90s each day through middle to end of the week. Temperatures through the long term will remain quite warm with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat indices will reach the 100-110 degree range each afternoon and Heat Advisories are highly likely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Although VFR conditions should prevail for the rest of this afternoon, some periods of MVFR/IFR are still possible with showers and thunderstorms. VFR should again prevail after 00Z during the nighttime hours. Expect mainly ESE around 10-12kt through 00Z, then subsiding to around 8kt tonight. APF may experience westerly flow through 22-00Z as Gulf breezes push inland. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Persisting high pressure over the west Atlantic will keep winds generally from the E/SE around 10-12kt through early next week. Mainly good boating conditions will prevail across the coastal waters with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Only exception will be around any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and strong winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Persisting east to southeast flow will keep an elevated rip current risk along the Atlantic beaches through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 92 81 92 / 10 70 60 70 West Kendall 80 92 78 92 / 10 70 50 70 Opa-Locka 82 93 80 92 / 10 70 50 70 Homestead 81 90 80 90 / 10 70 60 70 Fort Lauderdale 82 90 80 90 / 10 70 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 82 91 81 90 / 10 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 82 94 81 94 / 10 70 50 70 West Palm Beach 80 92 80 91 / 10 60 30 70 Boca Raton 81 91 80 91 / 10 60 50 70 Naples 77 94 78 91 / 20 70 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...17