157
FXUS62 KMFL 181259 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
859 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Heat Advisory In Effect For Miami-Dade/Broward Counties Through
This Evening...

...Scattered to Numerous Storms Especially Interior/West Coast
Today Along With Heavy Rainfall...

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Bermuda high will remain over the Western Atlantic waters
extending westward into the Central Florida today keeping a east
southeast wind flow over South Florida. This will allow for the
east coast sea breeze to push inland across South Florida with the
west coast sea breeze remaining over the west coast metro areas.
At the same time, a tropical wave will be moving through the
western Caribbean sea allowing for some deeper tropical moisture
to work into the region from the Bahamas. Therefore,scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today over South
Florida with the best coverage over the interior and west coast
metro areas.

The PWAT values this morning from the MIA sounding was around 2
inches and the short range models are showing the PWATS to remain
in the 2 to 2.1 inch range which is in the 90th percentile range
for this time of year. Therefore, there could also be some heavy
rainfall with the showers and thunderstorms that do develop today.
So will add heavy rainfall wording to the forecast for today.

The heat indices should still get into the 105 to 107 range over
most areas today. These heat indices are below the heat advisory
conditions over most of South Florida, except for Miami-Dade and
Broward Counties. Therefore, the heat advisory will remain in
effect through early this evening.

Rest of the forecast, looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control
through the end of the work week. This will result in a continued
E/SE flow across South FL and the precip pattern will remain
consistent with that set up. Highest PoPs during the afternoon and
early evening hours will be confined to the interior and SW FL, and
overnight PoPs will be maximized over the Atlantic waters and along
the east coast. Forecast soundings and HREF guidance shows PWAT
values ranging from 1.8-2.2 inches which will result in highly
efficient rainfall rates. That, along with slow storm motions, may
result in an isolated flooding risk for urban and poor drainage
locations. Much like the past few days, a few strong storms will be
possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily
over the interior and SW FL.

High temps this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s. These temps
combined with elevated dew points in the middle to upper 70s, will
result in peak heat indices of 100-108 degrees. Early afternoon
convection will likely keep Palm Beach and SW FL counties from
reaching criteria for at least a couple hours. With lower PoPs and
lower advisory criteria in Miami-Dade and Broward, confidence is
higher for these locations reaching criteria, so a heat advisory was
issued from 10 AM this morning until 6 PM this evening.

Low temps tonight will remain mild, only dropping down to the middle
70s around the lake to lower 80s close to the coasts. High temps on
Friday will again be in the low to middle 90s, which will likely
result in another day of heat advisories over a portion of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Through the weekend, the subtropical ridge circulation will continue
across the South Florida region. Light to moderate east to southeasterly
low level flow will continue to prevail for the weekend under this
setup. Rain chances will continue to be more favored towards SW Florida
along the Gulf coast and western interior sections as the Gulf breeze
will not be able to penetrate very far inland, plus the Atlantic sea
breeze will be able to push further inland under the E-SE flow.
Concurrently, another Saharan dust plume (SAL) will be advecting into
the region over the weekend, which is likely to create drier conditions
especially in the mid-levels. This can limit shower and storm growth
potential plus how widespread precipitation can become.

Moving into next week, the SAL will linger and still have an impact on
rain chances, but there is also expected to be a TUTT low (tropical
upper tropospheric trough) forming in the western Atlantic and may
advect westward towards the Bahamas/Cuba with energy advecting into
South Florida as well. The TUTT will provide extra forcing for ascent,
which combined with extra moisture advection (PWATs likely increase
over 2 inches) will create the potential for increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Potential impacts from this are still highly
uncertain given that the TUTT`s development and track could change
drastically by the time the weekend ends, but this will be something
to monitor as we head into next week. With the higher uncertainty,
PoPs are forecasted primarily in the chance to likely categories
(i.e. 50-70% primarily) for the early to mid- week period next week.
Flow may veer further southerly at times, but will still predominantly
stay in an east-to-southeast regime. Thus, higher PoPs are generally
focused towards the west coast and interior areas each day even with
the TUTT potential.

Temperatures are expected to continue reaching the low to mid 90s range
for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Therefore, Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible
each day given the high moisture leading to high dew points along
with the hot temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Winds will be easterly at 5 to 10 knots today over most TAF sites,
except for KAPF where winds will become westerly between 17 & 00Z.
VCTS for east coast TAF sites between 15 & 19Z and for KAPF TAF
site between 17 and 00Z. VCSH for east coast TAF sits from 12 &
15Z. Ceiling and Vis will remain in VFR but could fall down into
MFVR or IFR conditions with any showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly wind flow
will continue across most of the local waters through the rest of
the week as high pressure centered in the western Atlantic remains
in control of the weather pattern across the region. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less
through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher
in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  93  82 /  50  20  50  30
West Kendall     92  79  93  79 /  50  10  50  30
Opa-Locka        92  81  93  81 /  50  20  50  30
Homestead        91  80  91  81 /  40  10  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  50  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  92  81  92  82 /  50  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   95  81  95  82 /  50  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  92  80  93  80 /  50  10  50  20
Boca Raton       92  81  93  81 /  50  20  50  30
Naples           91  79  93  78 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...BNB