537
FXUS62 KMFL 182327
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
727 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure will continue to remain over the Western Atlantic
waters extending back westward into the Florida Peninsula.
This will keep an east southeast wind flow over South Florida
allowing for the east coast sea breeze to push across the region
as the west coast sea breeze remains over the west coast metro
areas this afternoon and again on Friday.

This weather pattern will allow for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and again on Friday
along the sea breezes. The best coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms will be over the interior and west coast metro areas
where the sea breezes collide. Therefore, the highs POPs will be
over the interior and west coast metro areas this afternoon and
again on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s over most areas,
except around 80 over the east coast metro areas. However, the
heat indices along the east coast metro areas will remain in the
90s for most of the night due to the dew points in the mid to
upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Highs on Friday will once again get into the lower to mid 90s over
South Florida with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will
allow for the heat indices to get back up into the 105 to 107
range over South Florida. With the new heat advisory conditons
over Miami-Dade and Broward counties, a heat advisory will more
likely be needed again over these counties for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Through the weekend, the subtropical ridge circulation will continue
across the South Florida region. Light to moderate east to southeasterly
low level flow will continue to prevail for the weekend under this
setup. Rain chances will continue to be more favored towards SW Florida
along the Gulf coast and western interior sections as the Gulf breeze
will not be able to penetrate very far inland, plus the Atlantic sea
breeze will be able to push further inland under the E-SE flow.
Concurrently, another Saharan dust plume (SAL) will be advecting into
the region over the weekend, which is likely to create drier conditions
especially in the mid-levels. This can limit shower and storm growth
potential plus how widespread precipitation can become.

Moving into next week, the SAL will linger and still have an impact on
rain chances, but there is also expected to be a TUTT low (tropical
upper tropospheric trough) forming in the western Atlantic and may
advect westward towards the Bahamas/Cuba with energy advecting into
South Florida as well. The TUTT will provide extra forcing for ascent,
which combined with extra moisture advection (PWATs likely increase
over 2 inches) will create the potential for increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Potential impacts from this are still highly
uncertain given that the TUTT`s development and track could change
drastically by the time the weekend ends, but this will be something
to monitor as we head into next week. With the higher uncertainty,
PoPs are forecasted primarily in the chance to likely categories
(i.e. 50-70% primarily) for the early to mid- week period next week.
Flow may veer further southerly at times, but will still predominantly
stay in an east-to-southeast regime. Thus, higher PoPs are generally
focused towards the west coast and interior areas each day even with
the TUTT potential.

Temperatures are expected to continue reaching the low to mid 90s range
for highs each day and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Therefore, Heat Advisory conditions will continue to be possible
each day given the high moisture leading to high dew points along
with the hot temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight
period. Convection will follow a similar evolution to previous
days on Friday with initial showers and a few thunderstorms near
the east coast in the morning, transitioning to the interior and
west coast in the afternoon. Winds will generally be light and
variable or light SErly overnight becoming generally SE around
10kts on Friday (with a Gulf Breeze passage at KAPF in the
afternoon).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The east to southeast winds will continue over South Florida
waters this weekend into next week due to the high pressure over
the Western Atlantic waters remaining nearly stationary. The wind
speeds will also be increasing to moderate conditions over the
Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters during this time frame.

The seas will be increasing from 2 feet or less in the Atlantic
waters today to more of a 2 to 3 feet this weekend into next week.
However, the Gulf seas will remain at 2 feet or less this weekend
into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The moderate southeast to east winds will allow for the rip
currents threat to increase to possible moderate conditions this
weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  82  92 /  30  40  30  60
West Kendall     78  93  79  92 /  20  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        81  94  82  93 /  30  50  30  60
Homestead        80  91  81  91 /  30  40  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  91  82  91 /  30  40  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  82  91  82  92 /  20  40  30  60
Pembroke Pines   81  95  82  95 /  30  50  30  60
West Palm Beach  79  92  80  92 /  10  50  20  60
Boca Raton       80  92  81  92 /  10  40  30  60
Naples           78  92  78  92 /  20  70  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Carr