876
FXUS62 KMFL 121907
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
307 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An upper level low off the mid-Atlantic coast will be absorbed into
the larger scale upper level flow through Saturday. Perturbations
passing through the region will allow waves of convection with
distinct lulls in between. One convective wave is possible this
afternoon/early evening with another wave possible late evening into
the overnight hours. At the mid and lower levels, high pressure
extending over Florida from the Atlantic continues to reign. With
the unsettled pattern brought by the upper level low slowly
transitioning back to the more diurnal sea breeze pattern for
Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to be warm with lower to mid 90s with
overnight lows that struggle to drop below 80 unless rain-cooled air
enters the equation. Heat index values will rebound on Saturday with
the potential for Heat Advisories across portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

As we transition into the long-term period, a record-strength
Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more
easterly flow on Sunday. Diurnally driven convection will begin
early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall
probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the
interior by the latter part of the day. The presence of a warm air
mass and 500mb temperatures remaining in the -5 to -6 degrees C
range through the weekend will likely inhibit the development of
robust and severe thunderstorms.

An extension of the Subtropical Ridge centered over the Western
Atlantic will maintain deep easterly flow across the region.
Embedded within this easterly flow is a fast-moving tropical wave
near the Windward Islands, which is forecast to reach the Straits
of Florida and the Florida Keys early Monday. This wave will bring
deep tropical moisture, with precipitable water values around 2.3
inches (90th percentile) and breezy east-southeast winds of 15-20
mph. The arrival of the tropical wave and associated moisture
will result in numerous showers and thunderstorms, supported by
sufficient forcing and large-scale ascent. It should be noted that
there is significant forecast uncertainty regarding the northern
extent of the moisture plume as it approaches our CWA. The ECMWF
model suggests a more southerly track, resulting in lower PWATs
over the area, while the GFS model indicates a more northerly
track with higher moisture content.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal throughout the
long-term period. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 80s
along the east coast and lower 90s across the interior and west
coast. Overnight lows will settle into the mid-upper 70s inland
and on the west coast, and upper 70s to low 80s on the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Generally VFR with bouts of sub-VFR due to rounds of convection. A
lull in showers and storms this morning will give way to increasing
activity with peak heating later today. Short-fused AMDs for
IFR/LIFR will likely be necessary. Activity should again diminish
late evening into the overnight. Another morning round of showers
and storms is possible Saturday. Light wind will lead to some
directional variability with gusty winds possible around
convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Generally light to moderate south to southwesterly winds will
prevail before shifting back to a more easterly flow by Saturday.
High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic, with seas and
wind speeds remaining well below highlight criteria. Thus, in
general, expect benign boating conditions to prevail through early
next week Only exception will be in the vicinity of any thunderstorm
that forms, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  81  92 /  30  60  40  60
West Kendall     77  92  79  93 /  30  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        79  93  81  93 /  30  60  40  50
Homestead        79  91  81  91 /  30  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  82  90 /  30  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  82  91 /  30  50  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  93  81  94 /  30  50  30  50
West Palm Beach  78  91  80  91 /  30  50  30  50
Boca Raton       79  91  81  91 /  30  50  30  50
Naples           78  93  79  94 /  20  60  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...RAG